garfield1:


Atiku has no chance.the north is not even rallying around him,the talakwas are not with him.he has no movement like rabiu.the remnants of pdp are divided.mahdi shehu the only popular person they have is AWOL.for atiku to make hay,same defection that happened in 2013 must happened.governors and senators must join pdp but nothing of sort will happen.instead more in pdp are working against atiku...nobody to canvass for atiku in zamfara.dauda lawal the guber candidate is battling multiple court cases.atiku does not have the charisma or personality of buhari.even yaradua could not win zamfara,who be atiku

Have you been to the north? The north are tilting towards Atiku already. Funny enough, APC cries have simmered out in the North. Most of them are now seeing APC as a strange party. The defections are only a tip of the iceberg. What is going on underneath is bigger than that.
Yaradua could not win Zamfara because he was seen as a stooge same way Tinubu will be seen as a southern stooge by Zamfara Fulani overlords. They will stick by their son. Atiku does not need to canvass for votes in Zamfara. The state will align for him. Even some of those in APC will canvass for him just as some in PDP canvas for buhari in 2015

Aiel123:

You're underestimating AA
He will win all states I mentioned

He won't sir.you overestimate him

Troublemaker111:
Bleep your father dolt , Tinubu will never near winning . Sango a pa bàtá a pa jinwinjinwin etí e

Rants of a yabaleft patients.wail on son.ban awaits you.bye Felicia

nedu666:
You see wat i am saying. Southerners will sit down in their room and be analysing how the north will vote. Allocating northern votes to ur candidates as if northerner voters are daft

It's honestly stupid.

Kyase:


Atiku will win 9 states in the north
Don’t ask me where and where

Kwankwaso if he’s actually contesting will win just 2 states, but he won’t win Kano

Funny.I should not ask you but allow you drop unreasonable comments.if kwankwaso doesnt win kano,where will he win? Atiku can't win more than 7 states up north

Aiel123:

If anybody is going to win kano, then it's Kwankwaso
Shekarau and Abba Yusuf are with NNPP
Na only kano and nothing else Kwankwaso fit win for North

Kwankwaso won’t and can’t win Kano
I won’t say much sha

garfield1:


Funny.I should not ask you but allow you drop unreasonable comments.if kwankwaso doesnt win kano,where will he win? Atiku can't win more than 7 states up north

Shey my comments are unreasonably
Let me see how Tinubu will win more than 4 states in the north

garfield1:


He won't sir.you overestimate him

Okay
Which among my aforementioned ones will he not win?
Remember they're:
Kebbi50% Sokoto 59% Bauchi 56% Taraba 60%
Adamawa 55% Plateau 55% Fct 45%
Delta 70% Akwa ibom 60% Edo 45% Bayelsea 65% Cross River 40% Rivers 40%{because of Wike decision not to work for AA)
Enugu 80% Anambra 45% Imo 50% Abia 52%
I left SW out because I know PDP won't win any state but will up to 30% of SW votes
Osun,ondo,Oyo and Ogun will bring the bulk of PDP votes in SW
LAGOS & Ekiti is gone

Agboriotejoye:

Have you been to the north? The north are tilting towards Atiku already. Funny enough, APC cries have simmered out in the North. Most of them are now seeing APC as a strange party. The defections are only a tip of the iceberg. What is going on underneath is bigger than that.
Yaradua could not win Zamfara because he was seen as a stooge same way Tinubu will be seen as a southern stooge by Zamfara Fulani overlords. They will stick by their son. Atiku does not need to canvass for votes in Zamfara. The state will align for him. Even some of those in APC will canvass for him just as some in PDP canvas for buhari in 2015

For atiku to win north,what happened in 2015.there must be alliance of parties.betrayals within apc but unfortunately nothing of such.as apc is losing members,pdp is too.no governor is likely to defect,it is even likely in pdp.pdp is divided into two equal half.ss,se is gone with obi.atiku is stranded.he has no core loyalists but fairweather friends and clowns like saraki and dino.
Despite buhari popularity up north,he still needed massive defection and sabotage to defeat pdp.how can atiku that is not popular manage this? His party is non existent in many states.atiku has never controlled any region or had a base.in 2007,he won no state.he struggled to control the politics of Adamawa.bamanga tukur humiliated him several times.the ss,se that is his base is almost gone.compare to tinubu that wrestled the sw out of pdp hands,totally dominates lagos.he helped Buhari to humiliate atiku in 2015 apc primaries,won apc primaries despite the disapproval of buhari.can atiku attempt this? Look at how wike almost defeated him,look at how wike is holding him to ransom.atiku is a useless,overrated,fake fellow.tinubu will bury him next year once and for all.sai tinubu

No be this idiot project say APC go win Osun?

Kyase:


Kwankwaso won’t and can’t win Kano
I won’t say much sha

Everybody with his own opinion
2023 no far again
I rest my case

Kyase:


Shey my comments are unreasonably
Let me see how Tinubu will win more than 4 states in the north

Katsina,zamfara,jigawa,Kaduna,yobe,borno,gombe,kogi,Niger,kwara. Unlike you,I am not afraid to speak out.support tinubu before it is late.I dont know how you reason.atiku will almost certainly support fulani herdsmen.

garfield1:


Katsina,zamfara,jigawa,Kaduna,yobe,borno,gombe,kogi,Niger,kwara. Unlike you,I am not afraid to speak out.support tinubu before it is late.I dont know how you reason.atiku will almost certainly support fulani herdsmen.

I should support a Muslim Muslim ticket abi
Never ever

Aiel123:

Okay
Which among my aforementioned ones will he not win?
Remember they're:
Kebbi50% Sokoto 59% Bauchi 56% Taraba 60%
Adamawa 55% Plateau 55% Fct 45%
Delta 70% Akwa ibom 60% Edo 45% Bayelsea 65% Cross River 40% Rivers 40%{because of Wike decision not to work for AA)
Enugu 80% Anambra 45% Imo 50% Abia 52%
I left SW out because I know PDP won't win any state but will up to 30% of SW votes
Osun,ondo,Oyo and Ogun will bring the bulk of PDP votes in SW
LAGOS & Ekiti is gone

Kebbi and sokoto are ok but in sokoto,tambuwal lost two lg chairmen and 2 commissioners.those are core loyalists,it is a bad sign.wamakko is very strong and APC candidate in sokoto is popular,that of pdp is not.bauchi is a fanatical state,they always vote enmasse for buhari.surely atiku can't win here.I agree with taraba but they are Christians arnd are anti fulani so he might struggle.if he is getting 55% in Adamawa,he will get less in taraba.forget IMO,they will go to obi all those states ravaged by ipob are pro obi plus pdp is divided in IMO.uzodinma is very dominant in IMO and he might deliver for apc since his second term is on the line.he is free on that day to wreck havoc since his election cones up December.I agree with plateau but they are anti fulani and are tilting towards obi.I agree with delta and akwa ibom...
Pdp in edo is weakeaned so it may be lower.those people are obified.crs and rivers is ok.how will atiku get 80% in Enugu? Best is 55%/remember ugwuanyi is pro wike.apc and pdp will be decimated in anambra.with the failure of pdp in abia and abaribe defecting,atiku has lost abia.you didn't put ebonyi.. Buhari got 40% in bayelsa.with both seriake and diri having issues and APC waxing stronger,tinubu can't get less talkess of obi.

If tinubu gets 60% in sw,wins jigawa,Kaduna,katsina,zamfara,loses sokoto and kebbi narrowly and follows nnpp in kano,wins yobe and borno massivele,gets 45% in bauchi,gombe,wins kwara,Niger,kogi,gets 35% in benue,nasarawa,plateau,he has won.25% in some ss/se states will just be jara..
Atiku lost his state in 2007,narrowly won in 2019,lost his ne region,struggles to control Adamawa politics.his main base ss/se is going.what is keeping him is pdp structure,that guy is overrated.look at how tinubu captured sw in 2011

Kyase:
I should support a Muslim Muslim ticket abi
Never ever

You cannot support a fulani Muslim either.stop the hypocrisy.the problem of benue is fulanis nor Muslims.tiu either are with obi or remain neutral

Trinitycian:


They hate PDP more than a man under whose watch as governor Northerners were massacred in Lagos?

They hate PDP more than a man who was declared 'enemy of the north' by the most revered Islamic cleric in Nigeria, Sheikh Jafar?

They hate PDP more than a man who's been cancelled by more than 7 power Islamic scholars in the North?

Finally, they hate PDP, on whose platform their son is running, more than an outsider and a fake Muslim, kwo?

2023 go shock you.

since atiku is more Islamic than tinubu,
why are you still crying about Muslim Muslim ticket.
or is shettima not a Muslim again.

garfield1:


For atiku to win north,what happened in 2015.there must be alliance of parties.betrayals within apc but unfortunately nothing of such.as apc is losing members,pdp is too.no governor is likely to defect,it is even likely in pdp.pdp is divided into two equal half.ss,se is gone with obi.atiku is stranded.he has no core loyalists but fairweather friends and clowns like saraki and dino.
Despite buhari popularity up north,he still needed massive defection and sabotage to defeat pdp.how can atiku that is not popular manage this? His party is non existent in many states.atiku has never controlled any region or had a base.in 2007,he won no state.he struggled to control the politics of Adamawa.bamanga tukur humiliated him several times.the ss,se that is his base is almost gone.compare to tinubu that wrestled the sw out of pdp hands,totally dominates lagos.he helped Buhari to humiliate atiku in 2015 apc primaries,won apc primaries despite the disapproval of buhari.can atiku attempt this? Look at how wike almost defeated him,look at how wike is holding him to ransom.atiku is a useless,overrated,fake fellow.tinubu will bury him next year once and for all.sai tinubu

Congrats!! You have jumpred from Buhari to Tinubu's ass.
Stop spewing trash though. No governor defected to CPC in 2011 and Buhari still won the north. There were no betrayals in PDP and no hardcore loyalists or other nonsense you're typing like someone high on expired weed. It was simply a case of whipping up of ethnic sentiments that led to CPC a new party with no strong politicians defeating the almighty PDP in the North.
North play tribal and religious politics not all this your rubbish analysis. Even in 2015, PDP still had more states than APC overall. They still had more NASS members than APC. Yet they lost to APC massively in the North. Do you know how many states flipped in 2015 in the North?
You're a political dimwit if you think only defections determine who is going to win or lose elections. In Kwara for example, the government is APC, the momentum is with PDP, but APC are already whipping up religious sentiments to topple the chart.
So stop arguing like a blind bat. There are more grassroots movement to PDP in the North. What will determine if Atiku will win is if the movement will be enough to give PDP a wide berth. But as it stands today, PDP looked prime to win the North in the presidential. This is a fact not any of your silly conjectures that are totally meaningless.

Kyase:
I should support a Muslim Muslim ticket abi
Never ever

what happened to Muslim Muslim ticket. or is it Yoruba man that want to Islamise Nigeria?
what a fulani man Buhari could not do.

garfield1:


Kebbi and sokoto are ok but in sokoto,tambuwal lost two lg chairmen and 2 commissioners.those are core loyalists,it is a bad sign.wamakko is very strong and APC candidate in sokoto is popular,that of pdp is not.bauchi is a fanatical state,they always vote enmasse for buhari.surely atiku can't win here.I agree with taraba but they are Christians arnd are anti fulani so he might struggle.if he is getting 55% in Adamawa,he will get less in taraba.forget IMO,they will go to obi all those states ravaged by ipob are pro obi plus pdp is divided in IMO.uzodinma is very dominant in IMO and he might deliver for apc since his second term is on the line.he is free on that day to wreck havoc since his election cones up December.I agree with plateau but they are anti fulani and are tilting towards obi.I agree with delta and akwa ibom...
Pdp in edo is weakeaned so it may be lower.those people are obified.crs and rivers is ok.how will atiku get 80% in Enugu? Best is 55%/remember ugwuanyi is pro wike.apc and pdp will be decimated in anambra.with the failure of pdp in abia and abaribe defecting,atiku has lost abia.you didn't put ebonyi.. Buhari got 40% in bayelsa.with both seriake and diri having issues and APC waxing stronger,tinubu can't get less talkess of obi.

If tinubu gets 60% in sw,wins jigawa,Kaduna,katsina,zamfara,loses sokoto and kebbi narrowly and follows nnpp in kano,wins yobe and borno massivele,gets 45% in bauchi,gombe,wins kwara,Niger,kogi,gets 35% in benue,nasarawa,plateau,he has won.25% in some ss/se states will just be jara..
Atiku lost his state in 2007,narrowly won in 2019,lost his ne region,struggles to control Adamawa politics.his main base ss/se is going.what is keeping him is pdp structure,that guy is overrated.look at how tinubu captured sw in 2011

Well Muslim/Muslim ticket will cause problem for APC in NC
Only Niger,Kogi&Kwara is guaranteed
He won't see 25% in Benue & Plateau
Fct will be worst
Same as SS/SE only core APC members will vote Tinubu here
As for the mass it's either PO or AA
And Tinubu won't get 60% of SW votes
Lagos is threatened
Only Ekiti is sure
Na 55/60% APC go see for Ogun, Oyo
Unless Buhari raises his voice for Tinubu,he won't win the core north period
I'm on the fence now
It's either PO OR AA ( Because of Okowa VP and the Ika tribe)
Tinubu na no go area

garfield1:


It might not be enough.in the ss,he is only sure of delta and aks.if he wins the other 4 states,it will be narrow.nothing for him in se except in Enugu but ugwuanyi is pro wike.he can only win sokoto and kebbi narrowly but you know tambuwal camp is being decimated.a lot of Christians in taraba and Adamawa will vote obi.jigawa is tightly held by badaru, the pdp there has been turned to a family affair for the lamidos.benue will go to obi.fct is dicey.nothing for him in borno.he can only win plateau narrowly. Kwankwaso might outdo him in bauchi.atiku is hapless

to you any governor of a state will deliver his state to his party keep dreaming

Agboriotejoye:

Congrats!! You have jumpred from Buhari to Tinubu's ass.
Stop spewing trash though. No governor defected to CPC in 2011 and Buhari still won the north. There were no betrayals in PDP and no hardcore loyalists or other nonsense you're typing like someone high on expired weed. It was simply a case of whipping up of ethnic sentiments that led to CPC a new party with no strong politicians defeating the almighty PDP in the North.
North play tribal and religious politics not all this your rubbish analysis. Even in 2015, PDP still had more states than APC overall. They still had more NASS members than APC. Yet they lost to APC massively in the North. Do you know how many states flipped in 2015 in the North?
You're a political dimwit if you think only defections determine who is going to win or lose elections. In Kwara for example, the government is APC, the momentum is with PDP, but APC are already whipping up religious sentiments to topple the chart.
So stop arguing like a blind bat. There are more grassroots movement to PDP in the North. [b]What will determine if Atiku will win is if the movement will be enough to give PDP a wide bert[/b]h. But as it stands today, PDP looked prime to win the North in the presidential. This is a fact not any of your silly conjectures that are totally meaningless.

All you said are usual typical thrash except the bolded.of course the defections is certainly not enough.they have even lost more members.you actually do not know what grassroot politics is son.you only know about elitist news,how things are against tinubu.electoral matters are not your forte.as it stands,apc dominates the north.from all indications,if elections hold today,each party will win their strongholds and that's a tinubu victory.delving from buhari to tinubu is not a problem,I am just showing you how baseless and lame your arguments are.tinubu towers above atiku politically and will thrash him anytime anyday.your dependence on the minority fulanis or northerners to whip up sentiments for atiku shows that atiku has little chances.he has no electoral value.apc are gaining new territories while pdp are losing more.whether you like it or not,party structure matters in election and it is wgy obi won't win.pdp is weak in so many states up north.apc would overrun atiku.except apc betrays tinubu,atiku will be humiliated.deal wirit

Chinonye2022:
to you any governor of a state will deliver his state to his party keep dreaming

That is not what am saying.atiku will take third sha

Aiel123:

Well Muslim/Muslim ticket will cause problem for APC in NC
Only Niger,Kogi&Kwara is guaranteed
He won't see 25% in Benue & Plateau
Fct will be worst
Same as SS/SE only core APC members will vote Tinubu here
As for the mass it's either PO or AA
And Tinubu won't get 60% of SW votes
Lagos is threatened
Only Ekiti is sure
Na 55/60% APC go see for Ogun, Oyo
Unless Buhari raises his voice for Tinubu,he won't win the core north period
I'm on the fence now
It's either PO OR AA ( Because of Okowa VP and the Ika tribe)
Tinubu na no go area

You are a reasonable analyst but you are being sentimental.mm will cause problems in nc but the Christians there mostly vote for pdp and will divide it with obi so damage is limited.in benue,the apc candidate is too popular and labour structure is weak plus ortom is a failure.buhari almost won benue in 2019 so tinubu will sww 25%.same thing in plateau.pdp votes will divide with labour so APC will maintain their votes.fct dont give bloc votes,they share votes.the yorubas alwats give bloc votes to their son. theres no way yorubas will leave tinubu and vote their rival tribes na.Nigeria politics is still tribal based.

Buhari doesnt need to raise his voice, apc dominates the north.in 2019,we thought that buhari won't see 25% in ss se but we were proven wrong.there is no way buhari a northerner will have more votes in the south than tinubu a southerner.leave all these sentiments.atiku main base is ss/se and peter obi has taken half of it.north has never been his base. If you dont like,tinubu others like him.Even though most Christians will vote obi,a lot will still vote atiku and tinubu.dont be deceived

garfield1:



All you said are usual typical thrash except the bolded.of course the defections is certainly not enough.they have even lost more members.you actually do not know what grassroot politics is son.you only know about elitist news,how things are against tinubu.electoral matters are not your forte.as it stands,apc dominates the north.from all indications,if elections hold today,each party will win their strongholds and that's a tinubu victory.delving from buhari to tinubu is not a problem,I am just showing you how baseless and lame your arguments are.tinubu towers above atiku politically and will thrash him anytime anyday.your dependence on the minority fulanis or northerners to whip up sentiments for atiku shows that atiku has little chances.he has no electoral value.apc are gaining new territories while pdp are losing more.whether you like it or not,party structure matters in election and it is wgy obi won't win.pdp is weak in so many states up north.apc would overrun atiku.except apc betrays tinubu,atiku will be humiliated.deal wirit

You did not even understand the bolded. The bolded says Atiku will win the north but what will decide is if the margin will be big enough to give him victory. The reason why I say so is because as things stand today, he might not get the bloc votes PDP used to get from the SS/SE. If that bloc votes were still assured, Atiku would just need to be ironing his swearing in babanriga
It is claptrap to claim that all parties will win their strongholds. NW was PDP stronghold before 2015. Nasarawa was funny. CPC used to win presidential but lose the governorship there. What about Edo. All through the 12 years AC/APC held the state, they never won presidential there. PDP always wins presidential. Niger was a one party state till 2015. Everywhere in Niger was PDP till 2015. So it is foolish simplicity to claim APC will win all their strongholds and PDP will do same. If anyone said APC will lose Ondo and Ekiti in SW in 2019, no one will believe it. The fact is the sentiments that go into an election are usually dynamic. But most times, each region have what is most important to them. The South seem to always vote based on perception of performance while the North vote based on ethno-religious sentiments. That is why Tinubu was prodded and he also saw wisdom in choosing a Muslim Vice. That is why Buhari and Adamu wanted a northerner to pick APC ticket.
So whatever you are calculating that does not take into account the dynamics of a political election, and the prevailing sentiments in a particular region is a waste of time.
For example, your question that which states in the North CAN Atiku and Kwankwaso win is a most foolish one. Based on prevailing sentiments in the North, Atiku and Kwankwaso fit the bill of all the available sentiments core Muslim north vote for. They are Muslims northerners. They are from core northern states and have mass appeal and spread. And they are well known and have been long in northern politics. There are three states which do not usually go with those sentiments because of their predominant Christian populations. That's Plateau, Benue and Taraba. They have a good chance in these states too because they have a Christian Vice. It is actually Tinubu that for sure CANNOT win all the Northern states because of his Muslim Vice. So you see how stupid that question you started the thread with is?

garfield1:


You cannot support a fulani Muslim either.stop the hypocrisy.the problem of benue is fulanis nor Muslims.tiu either are with obi or remain neutral

Oga you can’t determine my choice of candidate
I’m going to vote and I’m influencing some votes too
So I will wait to make my final decision

Two things can influence my direction

1-northern Christian APC ,which I’m a member ( let them finish with the consultations)
2- Amaechi ( who he supports matters too)

Jesusloveyou:
what happened to Muslim Muslim ticket. or is it Yoruba man that want to Islamise Nigeria?
what a fulani man Buhari could not do.

I don’t have problem with Tinubu’s candidature, my problem is his choice of running mate( don’t have problem with shetimma either)
It’s about time the northern Christians be taken serious
We are going to make a statement this election, shey dem say we no fit election for anybody
We go see

garfield1:


You are a reasonable analyst but you are being sentimental.mm will cause problems in nc but the Christians there mostly vote for pdp and will divide it with obi so damage is limited.in benue,the apc candidate is too popular and labour structure is weak plus ortom is a failure.buhari almost won benue in 2019 so tinubu will sww 25%.same thing in plateau.pdp votes will divide with labour so APC will maintain their votes.fct dont give bloc votes,they share votes.the yorubas alwats give bloc votes to their son. theres no way yorubas will leave tinubu and vote their rival tribes na.Nigeria politics is still tribal based.

Buhari doesnt need to raise his voice, apc dominates the north.in 2019,we thought that buhari won't see 25% in ss se but we were proven wrong.there is no way buhari a northerner will have more votes in the south than tinubu a southerner.leave all these sentiments.atiku main base is ss/se and peter obi has taken half of it.north has never been his base. If you dont like,tinubu others like him.Even though most Christians will vote obi,a lot will still vote atiku and tinubu.dont be deceived

Thank God INEC and Buhari for bvas
Now those politicians that wrote votes in the comfort of their bedroom,those who inflates and falsify figures, massively thumbprint will be checkmated
Truely it's now we'll be able to measure the 'structure' of Parties and politicians
PO really dealt PDP a big blow down their traditional stronghold of SS/SE
Labor should make road in north oo unless all this 'noises' will be initial gra gra
Seriously I want APC out of power. They have failed woefully and Tinubu's the architect of it all
We can have a foolish majority in democracy so I won't be surprised if APC wins
To the atikulated, obidient,kwankwasiyya,only a coalition of force can defeat APC

Aiel123:

Thank God INEC and Buhari for bvas
Now those politicians that wrote votes in the comfort of their bedroom,those who inflates and falsify figures, massively thumbprint will be checkmated
Truely it's now we'll be able to measure the 'structure' of Parties and politicians
PO really dealt PDP a big blow down their traditional stronghold of SS/SE
Labor should make road in north oo unless all this 'noises' will be initial gra gra
Seriously I want APC out of power. They have failed woefully and Tinubu's the architect of it all
We can have a foolish majority in democracy so I won't be surprised if APC wins
To the atikulated, obidient,kwankwasiyya,only a coalition of force can defeat APC

Your last point summarized everything

Kyase:

Oga you can’t determine my choice of candidate
I’m going to vote and I’m influencing some votes too
So I will wait to make my final decision

Two things can influence my direction

1-northern Christian APC ,which I’m a member ( let them finish with the consultations)
2- Amaechi ( who he supports matters too)

What is your problem with amechi? Northern Christians have been placated with lalong

garfield1:


What is your problem with amechi? Northern Christians have been placated with lalong

Amaechi is my man

Can you hear yourself so a Christian only job is to get votes for the Muslims abi and for how long

Guy avoid me with this rubbish
Tinubu can never be president

I will prefer obi the liar sef