Basically the 2015 presidential elections won’t necessarily be about if Jonathan was clueless on running the affairs of the country or APC is the main supporter of Boko Haram in a bid to discredit the Jonathan Administration. The election will be decided based on how many states each party is controlling and how well they are able to hold on to their states.
In reality each State Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicians have created to feed fat on the Nation. Which is more than enough reason to ensure the ruling party wins in the state

Attached is the current ruling party in each state

Currently PDP controls 21 states in the federation, adding PDP front, APGA controlled Anambra to the list, effectively makes it 22 compared to the 14 states controlled by the APC. This makes the PDP the most likely party that can win the presidential elections with a simple majority and easily fulfill the electoral requirements of achieving at least 25% of the votes in 24 states.
Knowing fully well that each Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicains have created to feed fat on the Nation.

APC still have the small matter of who their presidential candidate will be, Buhari, Kwankanso, Atiku or even Tambuwal, well whatever the outcome and in typical Nigerian Politicians fashion the losers will stop supporting APC or at worst join PDP leading to loss of votes for APC. For PDP this is already a foregone conclusion the presidential candidate is Jonathan, PDP will not suffer an attrition in its ranks if Jonathan wins the primary which will be a mere formality.

The tricky part will be PDP losing some of the states they controlled especially in the north. Going by the 2011 presidential elections, states like Bauchi, Jigawa, Kastina, Kebbi and Niger were all won by the CPC in the 2011 presidential elections despite having PDP sitting governors. But not to forget that APC controlled states of Edo, Imo, Rivers and Kwara have predominantly voted PDP in presidential elections, assuming only three of these states voted PDP again in 2015, the assumed state voting results will see PDP winning 20 states and APC winning 16. Give or take whichever party the FCT voted on, Jonathan will still be able to win the presidential elections come 2015, though the margins might be slim but I guess it will be enough.
[img]http://s50.photobucket.com/user/gbolsng/media/buhariandsharia_zps144257e5.jpg.html?filters[user]=142122832&filters[recent]=1&sort=1&o=0[/img]

op should not even bother himself on this analyses. our votes do not count in nigeria general elections. remember this is country where 16 is greater than 19.

Zakkyoz: op should not even bother himself on this analyses. our votes do not count in nigeria general elections. remember this is country where 16 is greater than 19.

.Abi o,No succesful president election have been conducted in Nigeria before aside june 12

@OP.
Great analysis, very impressive.

@OP, your analysis is ok... But, states like Kwara and Rivers were been controlled by PDP before and now belong to APC. In Kwara, I can say with the Bukola Saraki involve it will be difficult for PDP to win... The same goes with Amaechi, he will surely be desperate to deliver his state to APC also.
The overwhelming support Jonathan received in the past in southwest in no more there... The SW is the battle ground for both parties with APC having upper hand being the ruling party.
The State of Osun!!! Jonathan will never win in Osun in as much as Aregbesola is still the governor... It happened in 2011... The only state in SW where Jonathan lose... The just concluded election still gives the APC about 80%support of the citizens of Osun.
Let's wait and see how it goes... God keep us safe.

gbolsng:
Basically the 2015 presidential elections won’t necessarily be about if Jonathan was clueless on running the affairs of the country or APC is the main supporter of Boko Haram in a bid to discredit the Jonathan Administration. The election will be decided based on how many states each party is controlling and how well they are able to hold on to their states.
In reality each State Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicians have created to feed fat on the Nation. Which is more than enough reason to ensure the ruling party wins in the state

Attached is the current ruling party in each state

Currently PDP controls 21 states in the federation, adding PDP front, APGA controlled Anambra to the list, effectively makes it 22 compared to the 14 states controlled by the APC. This makes the PDP the most likely party that can win the presidential elections with a simple majority and easily fulfill the electoral requirements of achieving at least 25% of the votes in 24 states.
Knowing fully well that each Governor will be desperate to deliver his state in the presidential elections as this gives the winning Governor opportunity to nominate cronies and friends to Juicy ministerial posts, ambassadors, chairmen of parastatals and all the different offices politicains have created to feed fat on the Nation.

APC still have the small matter of who their presidential candidate will be, Buhari, Kwankanso, Atiku or even Tambuwal, well whatever the outcome and in typical Nigerian Politicians fashion the losers will stop supporting APC or at worst join PDP leading to loss of votes for APC. For PDP this is already a foregone conclusion the presidential candidate is Jonathan, PDP will not suffer an attrition in its ranks if Jonathan wins the primary which will be a mere formality.

The tricky part will be PDP losing some of the states they controlled especially in the north. Going by the 2011 presidential elections, states like Bauchi, Jigawa, Kastina, Kebbi and Niger were all won by the CPC in the 2011 presidential elections despite having PDP sitting governors. But not to forget that APC controlled states of Edo, Imo, Rivers and Kwara have predominantly voted PDP in presidential elections, assuming only three of these states voted PDP again in 2015, the assumed state voting results will see PDP winning 20 states and APC winning 16. Give or take whichever party the FCT voted on, Jonathan will still be able to win the presidential elections come 2015, though the margins might be slim but I guess it will be enough.

OP your analyses are as infantile as well as jaundiced

The dynamics that surrounds 2015 is markedly different from that of 2011

GEJ will score far lesser votes in SW,NW,NE,Kwara,Nassarawa,Abuja and Kogi than it did in 2011

All the Northern PDP Governors as always can never deliver more than 15% of the votes for GEJ......infact they cant wait to inflict an electoral mortal blow on him for betraying their 'gentleman's' agreement

The SW have realised that the vote they gave GEJ is a wasted investment as he has consistently rubbed pepper in their eyes that they are not the pillar of his administration

Most elections have always been rigged massively in the SE and SS..........even as PDP is expected to win in the 2 regions,yet massive effort will be deployed in making sure that it is only the actual votes cast that will be counted

Then pound for pound......The expected votes from the North and SW will obliterate whatever shenanigan PDP tries to come up with in both SE and SS

Unless PDP kills Oshiomhole,Amaechi and Okorocha( all of whom will want to deliver their states in order to lay claim to more political mileage and negotiation in terms of appointment) or bribe them massively( assuming they also play ball).....PDP will be massively policed bumper-2-bumper such that rigging will be very impossible........It obvious PDP might win all the 3 states but only with the real votes

But the anti-GEJ sentiment palpable in the whole of the North and amongst open-minded and ethnoreligious unbigotted Nigerians from the SW will deliver a tsunami of votes which will make GEJ the first elected President to lose reelection

PDP should have its reign while it lasts. One thing i know is that come 2019 after GEJ's tenure i am voting for another party cos I am tired of the scale of corruption under PDP.

Who isn't?