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Saudi’s Blow To Doha Deal Could Push Some Oil-reliant Nations To The Brink - Nairaland / General - Nairaland

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Saudi’s Blow To Doha Deal Could Push Some Oil-reliant Nations To The Brink by sugarboimaxy(m): 8:38am On Apr 21, 2016
Saudi Arabia’s decision to reject an international plan to limit oil output could push other big producers to the brink almost two years into a historic crude-price slump.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of crude, scuttled the hopes of countries like Russia, Venezuela and Angola, which wanted a deal that would freeze production at January levels and begin regulating the global glut of oil that has sunk prices. Nearly half of the countries sitting at the table in recent days in Doha—Iraq, Nigeria,Angola, Ecuador, Venezuela and Azerbaijan, among others—are seeking financial support from international backers.

In Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro trumpeted the oil-producer talks as a first step toward fiscal recovery, the economy is set to contract again this year as petroleum revenues dwindle. The cash crunch has hurt power generation, prompting the government to declare a national holiday on Monday to conserve energy usage and to consider a time-zone change.

Without naming any country, Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio del Pino said last-minute decisions had “sabotaged” the summit. But speaking to reporters on the side of a conference in Moscow on Monday, he said the drop in oil “prices could be so pronounced that this reality may force us to meet again,” according to the website of the country’s state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA.

In Russia, where the government was among the architects of the Doha talks, oil minister Alexander Novak said the failure to reach a deal would delay a recovery in oil prices to mid-2017. Senior Russian government officials had been counting on higher oil prices to lift the country out of a recession.

Now, instead of a freeze in production this year, “we expect growth in production compared with 2015,” Mr. Novak said.

Russia’s economy contracted 3.7% in 2015 amid weaker oil prices and Western sanctions. The country’s central bank forecasts gross domestic product to shrink a further 1.5% this year.

The world’s biggest crude exporters failed Sunday to reach an agreement on freezing oil output at January’s levels. Heard on the Street's Helen Thomas looks at what could happen next in oil markets.

Angola, a member of the 13-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is seeking financial aid from the International Monetary Fund as it prepares for a critical political transition.

“The government of Angola is aware that the high reliance on the oil sector represents a vulnerability to the public finances and the economy more broadly,” Angola’s finance ministry said this month.

Azerbaijan, which relies on oil and gas exports for 75% of its revenues and supported the Doha talks, has also held talks with the IMF on a possible bailout.Nigeria, an OPEC member with inflation at nearly 13%, is holding talks with the World Bank to help it close a forecast $11-billion budget deficit this year.

In Kazakhstan, where the government relies on oil for around half of its revenue, the IMF forecast GDP growth of 0.1% this year, compared with 1.2% in 2015 and 6% in 2013 before oil prices started falling.

Meanwhile, vulnerable oil producers are beginning to pump less petroleum because they don’t have enough money to make investments in the energy sector.

Venezuelan crude production is down by 46,000 barrels a day in March compared with its 2014 average. In Nigeria, a new wave of sabotage has taken 189,000 barrels a day offline in the same period.

Kazakhstan’s oil output is expected to decline this year for the third year in a row because of spending cuts and delays in launching output at the giant Kashagan oil field. Azerbaijan’s production is also is expected to fall this year mostly because of declines at the BP PLC-operated ACG oil field.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia is in a better position to ride out low prices. The kingdom still held foreign reserves worth $582 billion as of late February, according to the IMF, and plans to set up a sovereign fund worth $2 trillion. The Kingdom also has the ability to boost production by 2 million barrels a day at will, according to the International Energy Agency, the bulk of the world’s available spare production capacity.

The Saudis had signaled they were ready to make a deal in Doha over the weekend. The plans changed at the last minute, a day after Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Bloomberg thatthe kingdom wouldn’t make a deal unless Iran also constrained its production. Iran and Saudi Arabia are longtime rivals for power and influence in the Middle East.

Olivier Jakob, an analyst at Switzerland-based energy consultancy Petromatrix, said Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi would have lost credibility with Russia and others in what would have been a symbolic first step which could have led to greater OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation in the future.

A Persian Gulf oil official familiar with Saudi thinking said the kingdom’s oil officials are “well aware that they have lost their credibility.”

“But the kingdom is not totally shutting the door on further cooperation in the future,” the official said, noting that there could be renewed talks on oil production “when the picture in the market is clearer.”

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