2019 ELECTIONS AND A RECENT POLL

by Deji Yesufu

A recent poll conducted on my Facebook wall had 159 entries made. Of this number, former Vice President Atiku got 3 votes, Chinedu Moghalu had 9 votes, Fela Durotoye polled 10 votes, Donald Duke had 22 votes, Omoyele Sowore got 57 votes and Muhammadu Buhari had 58 votes.

Anyone that knows anything about polls will know that polls cannot always be trusted. Too many factors play into the outcome of a given poll. The demography and location of the persons involved in the poll is a leading factor. At the same time, polls can give a correct prediction of the outcome of a coming election.

For the sake of this essay, I want to assume the above poll result as the outcome of voting in just one polling unit in a given ward in the coming presidential elections. I also want to suggest factors that could bring about a different result.

My poll makes Muhammadu Buhari the winner of the 2019 presidential elections. He is hotly pursued by Omoyele Sowore. While Donald Duke, Fela Durotoye, Chinedu Moghalu and Atiku Abubakar tag along the two of them.

Muhammadu Buhari is likely to emerge the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC). Donald Duke is being tipped to get the ticket from former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s newly enacted movement. Atiku Abubakar may grab the ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This leaves us with three young men who have emerged into the Nigerian political stage and are shaking it to its roots. They are Omoyele Sowore, Fela Durotoye and Chinedu Moghalu.

Going by my poll, if the votes of all these three are put together, they would have 72 votes. This is a clear 18 votes above those of the incumbent President Buhari.

My poll suggests that if the new order, being championed by youths in this country, is going to make any head way at all, Sowore, Durotoye and Moghalu must come together in some kind of coalition to wrest power from the old block of politicians in this country. What is clear as noon day is that Atiku, Duke and Buhari cannot enter a coalition. This should give the opportunity to these young men to rescue Nigeria.

Going also by my poll, the leading candidate of these three is Omoyele Sowore. I admit that many other polls have placed Fela Durotoye ahead of Sowore but again, for the sake of this article, we are working with my poll. And a Sowore advantage over the three is not just something my poll suggests, even the talk of the town also say the same thing.

Omoyele Sowore’s media activities via the online news medium, Saharareporters, places him at a head start over Durotoye and Moghalu. Besides this, even before campaign has commenced, Sowore has embarked on a massive worldwide tour of cities to share his vision of ruling Nigeria with Nigerians living all around the world.

Sowore’s town hall meetings can simply be said to be unprecedented in the history of Nigeria. Young and old people come to this town hall meetings and engage him with questions, while he answers them thoroughly. His popularity has soured greatly to the extent that even the powers in Abuja are already quaking. The talk of “youth taking over” is now so frequent in our body polity.

Therefore the wise thing to happen in a coalition move will be for Sowore to emerge the presidential candidate for this coalition, while the likes of Durotoye and Moghalu join Sowore to form a government when they eventually take over power.

It is now that the political calculations must be made. Elections are a mere ten months away. The incumbent President while promising to run for a second term, has not shown Nigerians what it takes to lead a country.

To be fair to Muhammadu Buhari, he is not a complete failure in governance. This might be the reason for the high number of votes he got from my poll. While many people are not impressed by his style of governance, they would rather dine with him than with a devil they do not know.

But for some of us, Buhari just does not cut the picture of leading this nation for another four years. In many ways, the Buhari administration has simply repeated everything Nigerians complained about in the Jonathan government. Jonathan failed Nigeria in security and corruption. Buhari has not fared any better in the matter of security, especially with the unending killings going on around the country.

At first this administration behaved as if the killings were not happening. Now they simply come out and lament about the killings just like every other Nigerian. I am part of those who are convinced that there are people who are set to bring down this government and they are the ones sponsoring these killings. But a proactive government does not wait for people to spoil its work; it puts in modalities into place that will discourage these things from happening. The Buhari government is plain too reactive for some of us.

Corruption has also not dwindled in this government. We have watched as enemies of this administration and people who worked for the former administration have been hounded for corruption. We have however not seen one person in this government, who has been alleged of corruption, punished or even tried. It seem as if corruption has just changed faces with this present government.

A youthful government, hopefully one that is led by Omoyele Sowore, will bring vigour and vitality to governance. Nigeria can simply not survive geriatric leadership. We need a President who is up and doing. With all due respect to President Buhari, people of his age should be enjoying their retirement and not competing with their children in elections.

Many people may hold a lot against Omoyele Sowore but one thing they cannot hold against him is his innovation. Sowore’s Saharareporters has simply disrupted the Nigerian media space. In less than three months of joining the race to the presidency, he has shaken the whole foundation of our political space. We need minds like this to lead this nation.

It is OK for anyone to conclude that this article is championing a Sowore presidency. That is fine. What is also abundantly clear is that every hour, day, month and year this nation is left to be led by people who do not have what it takes to lead, leaves us in a precarious situation.

Nigeria’s problem is not Boko Haram, or IPOB, or even corruption. Nigeria’s problem is leadership. If this country elects a leader that can take the political problems in this country by the horn and bring it to submission, Boko Haram will end; IPOB members will find other jobs to do and we will all live happily ever after.

The ball, like they say, is in our court.

I was at a meeting in Ogun State with a collection of farmers. It was almost unanimous, their support for Buhari. They even mentioned the middle belt killings as an "abanwon" (small stain on his record) that he should try to stop soon so one could not conclude that they were unaware of contemporary happenings.

If your poll is correct then Buhari has won already. His supporters are 35% urban and 65% semi rural. Even his 35% urban support is far more than any of the others. What will seal a Buhari victory is PDP. I am sure they are going to bring tainted candidates with the result that APGA and SDP will do better than them in State Reps, National Reps and Senate races

SternProphet:
I was at a meeting in Ogun State with a collection of farmers. It was almost unanimous, their support for Buhari. They even mentioned the middle belt killings as an "abanwon" (small stain on his record) that he should try to stop soon so one could not conclude that they were unaware of contemporary happenings.

If your poll is correct then Buhari has won already. His supporters are 35% urban and 65% semi rural. Even his 35% urban support is far more than any of the others. What will seal a Buhari victory is PDP. I am sure they are going to bring tainted candidates with the result that APGA and SDP will do better than them in State Reps, National Reps and Senate races

2019 buhari/apc will be thrashed and PDP will be dominant party that it has always been. As for the also run sowore,moghalu and durotoye they can't combine to win 5% votes. The election is not about Sahara reporters!b