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Nigeria Election Analysis Base On Forensic Final Validation Result - Politics - Nairaland

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Nigeria Election Analysis Base On Forensic Final Validation Result by Adegbem02: 2:43am On Apr 19, 2023
The purpose of this technical report is to present an analysis of the Nigerian 2023 General Election. It is important to note that this report is purely a demonstration of my analytical skills and not intended to show any bias or preference towards any political party. Constructive criticism is welcome to help improve the quality of the analysis presented.

Key Findings:

LP Party: LP party did not meet the minimum requirement of getting 25% of votes in the 36 states + FCT (only 17 states). As a result, the party did not perform well in the election.

APC Party: The APC party lost in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) but managed to get 25% of votes in at least 29 states. The party's stronghold was in the south-west, north-east and north-west regions.

PDP Party: The PDP party also did not meet the minimum requirement of getting 25% of votes in the 36 states + FCT (only 22 states). The party did not have a strong presence in the regions where the APC and LP parties were dominant.

LP vs PDP: In the forensic analysis, LP had more voters than PDP in the validated data. Though we must take into account that, out of 176,974 polling units, forensic was able to validate 123,918 (showing the number of invalid EC8 forms), with a difference of 53,056.

Geographical Distribution of Votes: The APC party had a stronghold in the south-west, north-east, and north-west regions, while the PDP party had its stronghold in the south-east and south-south regions. Both APC and LP parties share North-Central with each other. It seems PDP only took the outlier states in the region where LP and APC were dominant.

Total Votes Cast: The total votes for APC, LP, and PDP were 5,928,825, 4,731,127, and 4,555,334 respectively.

Voter Turnout: The total number of accredited voters, registered voters, and votes cast were 17,444,859, 65,225,599, and 16,234,331 respectively. The voter turnout was 24.89%.

Conclusion:
The analysis shows that the APC, LP and PDP parties were the main contenders in the 2023 Nigerian General Election. The APC party managed to secure more votes and had a stronghold in the south-west, north-east, and north-west regions, while the LP party had a stronghold in the south-east and south-south regions. However, both parties did not meet the minimum requirement of getting 25% of votes in a certain number of states. Voter turnout was low, indicating that there is a need for more voter education and engagement to encourage greater participation in future elections.

Link to my google colab where the analysis was carried out
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/18qYdDSrBe5YoIL6RxIUVJ7v1L6hH2TYl?usp=sharing

Re: Nigeria Election Analysis Base On Forensic Final Validation Result by Iyamehi: 2:50am On Apr 19, 2023
Accurate. But foresee a low turnout n the next election due the lack of trust within the electoral empire

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Re: Nigeria Election Analysis Base On Forensic Final Validation Result by Nuhskhut: 3:01am On Apr 19, 2023
The recent apathy is as a result of lack of trust for INEC and religious leader doings.

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