Penguin2:


I’m surprised you still think Atiku will still have a chance at the PDP ticket at 81.

Meanwhile, I agree with you that Obi getting PDP ticket in 2027 will be suicidal as a lot of PDP stakeholders are harboring a lot of ill feelings towards him for contesting the 2023 elections against Atiku which they believe denied Atiku victory.

What I see happening however, is that some refined northerners in PDP who share Obi’s ideology might end up switching to Labour Party or working for Obi while in PDP having found out that Obi is a bigger force than they had reckoned him.

One way or the other, I just see LP working with some northern elements of PDP, and even Southern elements too, to have a go at the presidency again. Because as far as Obi remains in Labour Party, LP has more chance at the presidency than the PDP.

This is my practical analysis of realities on ground devoid of any sentiments informed by my support for Obi.

Penguin2:


I’m surprised you still think Atiku will still have a chance at the PDP ticket at 81.

Meanwhile, I agree with you that Obi getting PDP ticket in 2027 will be suicidal as a lot of PDP stakeholders are harboring a lot of ill feelings towards him for contesting the 2023 elections against Atiku which they believe denied Atiku victory.

What I see happening however, is that some refined northerners in PDP who share Obi’s ideology might end up switching to Labour Party or working for Obi while in PDP having found out that Obi is a bigger force than they had reckoned him.

One way or the other, I just see LP working with some northern elements of PDP, and even Southern elements too, to have a go at the presidency again. Because as far as Obi remains in Labour Party, LP has more chance at the presidency than the PDP.

This is my practical analysis of realities on ground devoid of any sentiments informed by my support for Obi.

Penguin2:


Apart from Atiku, which politician in PDP can come even 1000 miles close to Obi’s popularity?

mrvitalis:

Nd u have been here crying over PDP ?

Penguin2:


I’m surprised you still think Atiku will still have a chance at the PDP ticket at 81.

Meanwhile, I agree with you that Obi getting PDP ticket in 2027 will be suicidal as a lot of PDP stakeholders are harboring a lot of ill feelings towards him for contesting the 2023 elections against Atiku which they believe denied Atiku victory.

What I see happening however, is that some refined northerners in PDP who share Obi’s ideology might end up switching to Labour Party or working for Obi while in PDP having found out that Obi is a bigger force than they had reckoned him.

2. One way or the other, I just see LP working with some northern elements of PDP, and even Southern elements too, to have a go at the presidency again. Because as far as Obi remains in Labour Party, LP has more chance at the presidency than the PDP.

This is my practical analysis of realities on ground devoid of any sentiments informed by my support for Obi.

yemmit90:


Events of 2027 presidential election would be determined by performances of this current administration. Obi enjoy the wave of popularity, particularly in South south, south west and North Central, among Christians communities because of abysmal performance of Buhari/APC and Muslim- Muslim ticket.

If this administration perform very well, and the principle of federal character is strictly adherence to, he may not get upto 3 millions vote in 2027. Besides, the fear of voting any southerner who might probably be fighting to spend another 8 years after 4 years of Tinubu will work against any other candidate aside the president. Alot of power brokers will prefer Tinubu to spend 8 years and had the power to return to North than voting another southerner.

Tingotoe:
There's no case scenario in the last elections that would see Peter Obi winning. Most of Atiku 's votes came from the north. I don't see northerners voting for Obi in the near future

garfield1:


Wike and saraki and gej are still popular

yemmit90:


Events of 2027 presidential election would be determined by performances of this current administration. Obi enjoy the wave of popularity, particularly in South south, south west and North Central, among Christians communities because of abysmal performance of Buhari/APC and Muslim- Muslim ticket.

If this administration perform very well, and the principle of federal character is strictly adherence to, he may not get upto 3 millions vote in 2027. Besides, the fear of voting any southerner who might probably be fighting to spend another 8 years after 4 years of Tinubu will work against any other candidate aside the president. Alot of power brokers will prefer Tinubu to spend 8 years and had the power to return to North than voting another southerner.

ebenezary:
I see obi win 2027 if tinubu fail to get the subsidy and fuel price right

Penguin2:


Valid point.

But would a PDP southern candidate not be greeted with same sentiments or would PDP rather go for a northerner which would be more suicidal?

So, you see why an alliance with Obi remains PDP’s best chance?

Penguin2:


Valid point.

But would a PDP southern candidate not be greeted with same sentiments or would PDP rather go for a northerner which would be more suicidal?

So, you see why an alliance with Obi remains PDP’s best chance?

yemmit90:


Certainly it would, any candidate irrespective of the party belong will be greeted with same sentiment. Northerners love power, the highest they can allow is for southerner president to spend 2 terms in office.

Mark this post today, northerners would rather work for someone that will spend 4 more years than another fresh candidate. The same thing the like of Tinubu and Co did for Buhari in 2019 despite the fact that they knew he was a failure.

Raheeqilmaktoom:



What he's saying in other words is that if BAT performs, the opposition (PDP, LP, Sowore whatever) should forget 2027.

PDP aligning with Obi might only help them 2031 to take APC out of power - in an all northern contest, Obi may probably not even have a place.

Penguin2:


I’m not doubting your point.

But with the right calculation and politicking, and if this year’s voting demographics is maintained, trust me, the northerners can be beaten at their game.

Peter Obi beat them to their game if not that INEC did its abracadabra which we are waiting for the courts to look into.

yemmit90:


Hmmmmm, I will be very objective with election matter here. Do you think Peter Obi got requires votes in NW and NE to stand any chance, not to even talk about 25% spread in 23 states? Do you know that the votes of these 2 zones alone swallowed almost entire votes in the South?

Do you think is logical for a party that don't have party agents in over 50% of polling units to be claiming rigging?

Will you still say that after Obi, Atiku, and Kwankwaso who were formally under the same party PDP shared a hooping 14m votes as against APC 8m votes, they still rigged the election?

Will you say as big as APC with formidable structure cannot pull up 8m votes as against their harsh rival PDP that pull a total of 14m votes?

Do you witness what happened at tribunal today when LP Lawyers presented supposed eveidences from 20 LGA in Ekiti state. The state that has only 16 LGA?

In my opinion, I don't think they actually rigged this election, the only place I think Wike ignorantly manipulated result for APC is Rivers state. APC actually lost this election by wide margin, what gave them undeserving victory was disintegration of PDP.

Penguin2:


I hate it when you guys proffer the balkanization of PDP as the reason APC won as though the voters of APC remained unchanged since 2015. If that is the case, then why didn’t APC score the 15million they scored in 2015 or the 13million they scored in 2019?

Again, do you find nothing wrong in the fact that INEC reneged on their promises and guidelines, and shut down the IREV that would have ensured transparent inflow of votes let’s see how much you people’s talk of the Northwest votes would have faired transparently?

The truth is that Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu canceling themselves out in your almighty Northwest is the reason Obi won this election.

Obi scored over 290k votes in Kaduna according to INEC result but LP insists they did more than that to give them 25% in Kaduna, a northwest state.

Obi won in Taraba, even according to votes on IREV, but his votes were allocated to Atiku, and maybe Tinubu. Taraba is the northeast.

Obi also did well, and most likely did above 25% in Adamawa but votes were rigged for Atiku. Adamawa is Atiku’s home state in the northeast too.

So also was Obi’s votes viciously manipulated in Bauchi, Gombe and Borno of northeast. In a form EC8A sighted online on Election Day, Obi scored about 184 votes in a single polling unit in Bauchi Local Government of Bauchi State. But when the result of the entire local government was computed, your INEC allocated just 140 votes to Obi.

Are those the things you are defending?

Remember, I’m still in the north o! I’ve even talked about southern states where even a PDP agent said on National Television that by the result in their possession, Obi scored about 930,000 votes. Those votes were viciously slashed and allocated to Tinubu. Or you think that’s a made up story?

Let’s not talk about the systematic rigging that went on in other Southwest states which resulted in over voting in some states of the region.

See, Tinubu lost the 2023 election woefully.

Penguin2:
I’m surprised you still think Atiku will still have a chance at the PDP ticket at 81.

What I see happening however, is that some refined northerners in PDP who share Obi’s ideology might end up switching to Labour Party or working for Obi while in PDP having found out that Obi is a bigger force than they had reckoned him.

One way or the other, I just see LP working with some northern elements of PDP, and even Southern elements too, to have a go at the presidency again. Because as far as Obi remains in Labour Party, LP has more chance at the presidency than the PDP.

fergie001:
He is in control of the Party as it stands.

I don't know who will better him in that Party. Dankwambo cannot even win his NE cumulatively.

Tambuwal is from the NW, how many Southern States will he win? It will only take the 'unseen' hands of the Presidency to initiate that coup.

LP and the Presidency are parallel lines. As long as the PDP and LP go into elections with different Candidates, it is a sweet and delicious ride for the APC.

KD already showed you where the North will go, if they don't go APC.

@the italicised, what will make them support Obi if they get a refined Candidate in their own Party?

@ the bolded, that will be in Southern Nigeria/Benue/Plateau not core-North. It will always be his albatross. The PDP will likely field another Northern Candidate in 2027.

How can Obi win any NWern State?
How can he win any NErn State? That is 13 already!

I don't blame Obi. It is not just about himself, it is where he is from. So, I pity him and myself inclusive.

If God keeps Tinubu alive, it is still 2031.

garfield1

Penguin2:


2031 is will be the turn of the north. Any southerner contesting the presidency then will be wasting his time.

Obi’s last chance is 2027. But I insist that with the right alignments, LP and PDP could dislodge Tinubu.

garfield1:
Firstly,I don't think atiku is in control of the pdp.the party is factionalized,atiku has never been someone that loves to have a stranglehold on party structures,it isn't his style.he is more mercantilist.

Tambuwal,saraki and co that usually support atiku will no longer support him again,that time has passed.

Obi failure is more about his party and himself not his tribe.

Someone like ouk,rochas,umahi would have won or at least make more waves than obi

fergie001:
He is in control of the Party as it stands.

I don't know who will better him in that Party. Dankwambo cannot even win his NE cumulatively.

Tambuwal is from the NW, how many Southern States will he win? It will only take the 'unseen' hands of the Presidency to initiate that coup.

LP and the Presidency are parallel lines. As long as the PDP and LP go into elections with different Candidates, it is a sweet and delicious ride for the APC.

KD already showed you where the North will go, if they don't go APC.

@the italicised, what will make them support Obi if they get a refined Candidate in their own Party?

@ the bolded, that will be in Southern Nigeria/Benue/Plateau not core-North. It will always be his albatross. The PDP will likely field another Northern Candidate in 2027.

How can Obi win any NWern State?
How can he win any NErn State? That is 13 already!

I don't blame Obi. It is not just about himself, it is where he is from. So, I pity him and myself inclusive.

If God keeps Tinubu alive, it is still 2031.

garfield1

fergie001:
Wike has showed him the way. Atiku by now should be in Dubai, he doesn't do his visits frequently. I don't see the fractionalisation of the Party, asides Makinde, where is the division coming from?
Ikpeazu, Ortom & Ugwuanyi's political careers are dead at least for now. Wike has joined APC so where is it?

Olusole Oke will likely be Minority Leader of the HoR so I don't see it. Unless Atiku statemanly steps down to back someone, we all know he doesn't do that


Tell me one Candidate you feel as of now will fly the ticket of the PDP and garner some nationwide votes. I am not seeing it anywhere. Saraki only supported after he lost, he is a Partyman.

So you think Obi will win if he was in the PDP? Let's be honest with ourselves, please.

Where he is from plays a factor.

Those names you mentioned will not do better. From a religious PoV, you know.... it is always a factor.

BERNIMOORE:
get out ...Atiku is your hero, and we told you guys that bringing down PDP with his n PDP gang in 2015 will backfire how market now

GREATIGB0MAN:
If peter Obi contest in PDP with all their resources.

Peter Obi will surely win


Atiku is too stingy and power hungry


Very useless old man

eleniyan2020:
not in this Nigeria bro....the attitude of is supporters will never make him win!

garfield1:

See,not everybody that is against wike supports atiku camp. They are a lot of neutrals in pdp. Atiku doesn't have core loyalists like tinubu,buhari,it is just friends of temporary convenience.

wike hasn't decamped.

There's a limit to being a partyman. Saraki, tambuwal and co are ambitious and want to be President

Atiku is blocking their party. Sooner or later, they will dump him. it is better they wait 8 years for tinubu and re-contest just like kwankwaso....

Oluwole oke cannot be the minority leader, Chinda will emerge except betara or wase wins. You saw what happened in 2019 between Chinda and Elumelu.

Again,tinubu camp will never allow an archenemy like oke to rise against them.you saw how Makinde easily beat obaseki.

Obi was never going to win because he isn't nationalistic and exposed. He is too Eastern and doesn't appeal to the north.

People like rochas that speak Hausa,have friends all over Nigeria,are hated at home will easily do better up north.

Raheeqilmaktoom:


The only right alignment here is some PDP members working for Obi which is:

1. A tall order.

Obi's only hope is for the PDP to capitulate to him which is highly impractical, the PDP would rather present a candidate and pull off the same thing he did on them in 2023 than provide him a pathway.

It's going to be a war of attrition as they call it in military - a war where you continuously take pounds of flesh from each other with no winner between you save APC, in this case.

2. They lack the spread and capacity to effect any meaningful impact.

The 2023 demographics show the bigger north, the SW and some SS areas going with APC, if the president performs, that combination will stand - even stronger, and there's no way PDP, LP can beat that.

fergie001:
He is in control of the Party as it stands.

I don't know who will better him in that Party. Dankwambo cannot even win his NE cumulatively.

Tambuwal is from the NW, how many Southern States will he win? It will only take the 'unseen' hands of the Presidency to initiate that coup.

LP and the Presidency are parallel lines. As long as the PDP and LP go into elections with different Candidates, it is a sweet and delicious ride for the APC.

KD already showed you where the North will go, if they don't go APC.

@the italicised, what will make them support Obi if they get a refined Candidate in their own Party?

@ the bolded, that will be in Southern Nigeria/Benue/Plateau not core-North. It will always be his albatross. The PDP will likely field another Northern Candidate in 2027.

How can Obi win any NWern State?
How can he win any NErn State? That is 13 already!

I don't blame Obi. It is not just about himself, it is where he is from. So, I pity him and myself inclusive.

If God keeps Tinubu alive, it is still 2031.

garfield1

Penguin2:


Nobody, I say it again, nobody, voted for Tinubu in the Southsouth.

Or could you be referring to Rivers State?

Penguin2:


Obi won Taraba in the northeast but it was rigged for Atiku.

Obi got more votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe than was allotted to him.

Are you saying that if INEC had allowed for transparency in the last election that the outcome wouldn’t have been different?