THIS WEEK ANALYSIS: 1st – 5th April



The most important items over the coming week will be US Non-Farm Payrolls & Average Earnings, Fed Chair Powell giving a speech, and German Preliminary CPI (inflation) data. Apart from this, there are a few other important items:


1. US JOLTS Job Openings
2. Swiss CPI (inflation)
3. US ISM Services PMI
4. US ISM Manufacturing PMI
5. US Unemployment Rate
6. US Unemployment Claims
7. Canadian Unemployment Rate

GOLD ANALYSIS: Nearing $2300 Per Ounce

3rd April, 2024.

The overall trend for the price of gold remains bullish and is gaining strength, with investors paying little heed to technical indicators pointing towards strong buying saturation levels.

- Ahead of key economic events, gold prices rose to as high as $2288 an ounce, setting new all-time highs.
- Geopolitical tensions and rising demand from funds and central banks offset a strong dollar and the possibility of higher US interest rates for longer.
- Overall, gold prices have gained 10.5% since the start of the year.



Over the past 12 months, the yellow metal has risen by more than 15%. Silver prices, gold's sister commodity, also joined the rally yesterday. Silver futures rose to $26.055 an ounce. Overall, white metal has risen by almost 9% since the start of the year to date.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions escalated this week after an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria killed two generals and Ukraine launched a raid on a refinery deep inside Russian territory. At the same time, the rising value of gold has been attracting individual investors. Moreover, this comes in light of recent economic data that suggests the US economy remains strong, giving the Federal Reserve additional room to keep US interest rates higher for an extended period. Overall, focus will now shift to the US jobs report for March on Friday and comments from several Federal Reserve officials for more clarity on the US easing cycle.





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EUR/USD ANALYSIS: Eyes on ECB

3rd April, 2024.


The general trend of the EUR/USD pair will remain bearish until the reaction to the announcement of US job numbers by the end of the year.

- Ahead of the release of eurozone inflation figures and then new comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, the EUR/USD pair continued its strong downward trend.
- Losses extended to the 1.0724 support level, its lowest in a month and a half, before quickly rebounding to 1.0770 in early trading on Wednesday.
- Clearly, it benefited from the decline in the number of US job openings.


The losses in the EUR/USD came as investors expected more easing from the European Central Bank than the US Federal Reserve this year. Overall, financial markets have slightly increased their expectations for future rate cuts by the ECB, pricing in 93 basis points for 2024. This is following German regional consumer price index data pointing to a significant slowdown in inflationary pressures across the country in March.


In addition, headline inflation in France reached its lowest level in more than two years, while rates in Italy and Spain saw slight increases. In the United States, traders tempered their expectations for a cut in US interest rates this year after data revealed that the US manufacturing sector unexpectedly rebounded to growth in March, recording the first growth of its kind in 18 months.





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GBP/USD ANALYSIS: Bears in Control

3rd April, 2024.


Recently, the pair has fallen by about 3% from its 7-month high hit in early March and is nearing a test of its 2024 low near $1.25 support.


-Finally, hopes of the GBP/USD currency pair moving towards the psychological resistance level of 1.3000 in the near term have evaporated.
- The US dollar is witnessing an increase, supported by US economic data that have surpassed consensus, indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.


According to forex trading platforms, the pound sterling exchange rate against the dollar (GBP/USD) dropped to support at 1.2540, the lowest level since February, after the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 50.3 in March from 47.8 in February, comfortably exceeding expectations of 48.4. Also, the report indicated that inflationary pressures facing US companies are increasing again, with the prices paid component in the report rising to 55.8, surpassing estimates of 52.6.

Overall, market expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June have decreased after the release of the data, which boosted US yields and the dollar. The US dollar was further bolstered by the strong ISM index, according to Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX, and Commodity Research at Commerzbank. He stated, "Strong growth in the United States may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its federal funds rate at its current elevated level for longer than previously assumed by the market."

Meanwhile, this development reinforces the growing downtrend in the GBP/USD exchange rate, which has now fallen below the 50-week moving average. The performance on the chart above shows that the 50-week moving average provided support for the pound, and we are now seeing that a long-term downtrend may be forming. However, daily support is at February lows near 1.2517, a level we are watching this week.

In general, the upside trend for the GBP/USD pair in the near term will be determined by the 100-day moving average, which is currently located at 1.2652, which has limited the upside potential for the pound since March 22.





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USD/JPY ANALYSIS: Japan's Currency Comments

3rd April, 2024.

The overall trend remains bullish and may continue as such until intervention from Japan in the markets to prevent further currency depreciation, alongside the negative US job figures at the end of the week.


- Hopes for an early US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve were dashed again at the start of this week's trading after more upbeat data from the US.
-As a result, the USD/JPY currency pair remained stable around the 151.80 resistance level, which is close to the levels where talk of Japanese intervention in the markets to prevent further collapse of the currency is increasing.


According to the results of the economic calendar, the US ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected in March, rising above 50 to the expansionary zone for the first time since September 2022. In addition, the sub-index of prices paid also rose, hitting its highest level since July 2022, in a further sign that inflationary pressures have not completely dissipated. Moreover, the strong PMI reading follows last Friday's strong US core personal consumption spending reading and somewhat hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Furthermore, the CPI and PCE data continue to support the view that inflation is still largely on a downward path, albeit increasingly shallow, other indicators are confirming the Fed's caution about price expectations.

Subsequently, an early US rate cut in June started to look doubtful, and the probability of a 25-basis point cut in the federal funds rate fell to around 60%. More importantly, investors are now pricing in fewer cuts for 2024 compared to what the latest FOMC dot-plots projected just two weeks ago.

On the other hand, Treasury bond yields rose on the back of the data, as the yield on 10-year bonds rose by 13.5 basis points. Also, the jump in yields led to a new rise in the price of the US dollar, which extended its gains to its highest levels in four and a half months against a basket of currencies early Tuesday.

In contrast, the euro and sterling fell to their lowest levels in a month and a half against the US dollar as the European Central Bank continued to price in a rate cut in June. Also, investor confidence grew that the Bank of England would be able to start an easing cycle in the summer. This contrasts with the growing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed's first move.




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GOLD BUY 2298

TP 2300
TP 2302
TP 2304
TP 2306
TP 2308
SL 2288


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TP 2300
TP 2302
TP 2304
TP 2306
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USD/CAD ANALYSIS : US Dollar and Canadian Dollar Ready to Move

5th April, 2024.



USD/CAD awaits US and Canadian employment data, likely inducing volatility. Sideways consolidation with 1.34 support and 1.36 resistance. Breakout could lead to significant moves. Caution advised amid high volatility.


- The Friday session should be very interesting for the USD/CAD pair as the day will feature both the American and Canadian employment figures.
- Because of this, I think you have a situation, or we are going to see a lot of volatility, this might be “Ground Zero” for the Forex world during the day.
- After all, the 200-Day EMA is starting to show signs of support is something worth paying attention to but quite frankly I think this is a market that is just killing time before we get more information that we can take advantage of.



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -

The technical analysis for this pair is one of sideways consolidation from the longer-term standpoint, with a 1.34 level underneath offering a massive amount of support, while the 1.36 level above offers significant resistance. The 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day indicators both come into the picture’s offer potential noise. With this being said, I think you have got a market that is going to continue to just bounce back and forth but you have to pay attention to both of those levels as a breakout from that range could be a major turn of events.

If we were to break above the 1.36 level, then it is possible that we could go to the 1.3850 level. If we break down below the 1.34 level underneath, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.3250 level. Either way, if we break out of this trading range, I think it becomes a huge potential move. Otherwise, then we will just simply bounce around in this area and continue to use those 2 levels as boundaries for your trading.

Keep in mind that the employment figures come out at the same time, so this will cause a massive amount of volatility that you have to be aware of. Do not put big positions on, but once we break out of this range then you could start to add to a position if it’s already working out in your favor. Expect a lot of noise, but hopefully we’ll get a little bit of clarity.







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EUR/USD ANALYSIS : Reaches Fair Value


5th April, 2024.


I like the idea of waiting to see what Friday does before putting money to work, but I think the set up from a technical analysis standpoint currently is to wait to we get to the outer part of the consolidation range to put money to work.



- The euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of recovery from the bottom of the overall consolidation area.
- After all, keep in mind that the 1.07 level underneath has been a significant support level, right along with the 1.10 level above which of course has been a significant resistance barrier.
- At this point in time, we are essentially hanging around in the middle, and therefore it looks like we are going to continue to see traders hang around this area as it is essentially where I would mark “fair value.”



Non-Farm Payroll


The nonfarm payroll announcement comes out during the day on Friday, that will almost certainly have a major influence on what happens next. This is probably why we have ended up at “fair value”, and therefore I think it makes perfect sense that we are sitting right where we are. I like the idea of waiting to see what Friday does before putting money to work, but I think the set up from a technical analysis standpoint currently is to wait to we get to the outer part of the consolidation range to put money to work and then start to fade signs of exhaustion, regardless of what direction it is. That being said, if we were to break out of this range, it’s very likely that we could see quite a bit of momentum, but at this point it doesn’t look like we are going to see that anytime soon as we are so far away from both edges.


The ECB and the Federal Reserve both are likely to cut rates sometime this year, and therefore neither central bank has a “leg up” on the other. Because of this, I don’t necessarily think that any direction has more strength than the other, and it’s also possible that any knee-jerk reaction from the jobs figure will fade by the end of the session. This is typical for nonfarm payroll Friday anyway, so that would not be a surprise to me at this point in time.







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S&P 500 ANALYSIS : Brace for Jobs Report Volatility


5th April, 2024.


I have no interest in shorting, although you can make an argument, perhaps for taking profit heading into the announcement.



- You can see that the S&P 500 looks very strong.
- I think at this point in time we will continue to see a lot of buyers coming in on dips to take advantage of the value that appears on each pullback.
- It is worth noting that today is the jobs number. Keep in mind that the jobs number is often a major mover of markets in general, and therefore you need to be very cautious with your position sizing as you can take massive losses if it goes against you.


That is going to come as a significant amount of volatility. Short-Term pullbacks, I think see plenty of support at the 5200 level and then possibly even lower than that. The 50 day EMA is currently racing towards the 5100 level. And therefore, I think that is going to act as a floor. We have been at a 45 degree angle rising for some time, and I think that probably continues to be the case.



Noisy Behavior Expected

I would expect a lot of noisy behavior during the course of the trading session on Friday, as per usual, but this is a market that's bullish, and I think the market will try to convince itself one way or the other that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates regardless of what the jobs number tells us, and therefore it remains buy on the dip.

I have no interest in shorting, although you can make an argument, perhaps for taking profit heading into the announcement. Worst case scenario, I suspect we get a short term pullback that only gets bought into. Hunting for value of course is the way that a lot of traders will be looking at this market, I think it does offer value from time to time. A little bit of caution and a bit more patience probably pays off in this market going forward, so remember this as we continue to see stock markets on Wall Street get stretched a bit.







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NASDAQ 100 ANALYSIS: Bullish Ahead of NFP

5th April, 2024.


If we can break above the 18,500 level, I think that the Nasdaq 100 will continue to go much higher, perhaps grinding its way towards the 19,000 level over the next couple of weeks.


- The Nasdaq 100 rallied rather significantly during the trading session here on Thursday.
So it looks like we will continue to find plenty of buyers.
- I like the idea of buying short term pullbacks at this point, but I also recognize that the nonfarm payroll announcement on Friday will cause a lot of volatility.
- This is normal, but quite often will continue to offer buying opportunities once the initial reaction happens, assuming it is negative for the market.


With that in mind, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that you're looking to buy dips. Friday may give you that opportunity to pick up cheap contracts. Underneath we have the 17,775 level offering support. The 50 day EMA is sitting right there as well. In other words, I think there are plenty of buyers waiting to get involved.


The Noise Continues

Keep in mind that the market has been very noisy as of late, but that's not a huge surprise considering we shot straight up in the air for the first several months of the year. If we can break above the 18,500 level, I think that the Nasdaq 100 will continue to go much higher, perhaps grinding its way towards the 19,000 level over the next couple of weeks.

Regardless, this is a market that you cannot short. It is far too strong and there are a lot of people out there playing the momentum. Remember, the Nasdaq 100 is not an equal weighted index. So, it basically comes down to a handful of stocks rising in order to drag everybody else up with it. As far as the index itself is concerned, I have no interest in shorting, like I said.

But if we were to break down below the 17,775 level, then I might look for a value play on a deeper correction. In that environment, you might be able to go a little bit more, buy and hold on to a value trade, but we will have to wait and see.






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AUD/USD ANALYSIS: Reaching Towards Major Resistance

5th April, 2024.


This is a market that is overdone and therefore a lot of people will be looking to potentially fade this move.


- The Aussie dollar has rallied rather significantly early during the trading session on Thursday.
- As we have broken above the 0.66 level, the 0.6650 level above is a significant resistance barrier.
- I think a lot of people are going to be paying close attention to this area. This is an area that's been important multiple times, so it does make a certain amount of sense that market reaction would show itself at this point.


A Potential Short?

If we do approach this level and it shows signs of exhaustion, it's very likely that traders will come in and start shorting. After all, we've been in a 200 point range for a while now, and unless something drastically changed because I don't see the AUD/USD market breaking out of here, the jobs number coming on Friday of course, will have a certain influence as well, and it could have people taking profit.

On the whole, I believe this is a market that if we can break above the 0.6675 level, then it can go much higher. But at that point, we would need to see a lot of reasons to believe that the Federal Reserve is in fact going to start cutting. And that would be if we get a poor jobs number, if we get a strong jobs number, we could very well turn back around.

The one thing that is driving the Aussie higher, from what I can see, though, is the fact that it is highly correlated to the gold market, which of course has been going straight up in the air. This is a market that is overdone and therefore a lot of people will be looking to potentially fade this move. However, if we do break above that crucial resistance barrier, it could truly send this market much higher, and perhaps have the Australian dollar take off quite drastically.






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GBPUSD Analysis




GBP/USD Analysis: Weak Sentiment Weighs on Sterling


In the forex market, the pound sterling also rose against the euro to 1.1735 in the minutes following the headline news on UK CPI inflation, which rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, down from 3.4% in February but beating market expectations of 3.1%.

According to economic calendar data, the UK's all-important core inflation rate rose by 4.2% year-on-year, from 4.5%, but beat market expectations of 4.1%. Services inflation eased slightly from 6.1% to 6.0%. This level is still too high to be consistent with an imminent rate cut from the Bank of England. Commenting on the results, Francesco Pesole, ING FX Analyst, says: "The services CPI - which the BoE is mostly looking at - slowed from 6.1% to 6.0%, versus consensus and the BoE's own forecast of 5.8%." added, "Along with stronger-than-expected wage data, it seems increasingly likely that the first BoE rate cut won't come until August."

In general, markets had favored June as the start date for the rate-cutting cycle, but some MPC members have recently indicated that they prefer an August cut. These figures could give this camp of policymakers a stronger hand in the upcoming deliberations. Commenting on this, Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, says, "A 25-basis-point rate cut in the UK is not fully priced into financial markets until later this year. Today's inflation and wage data are making investors more cautious about rate cuts."










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EURUSD Analysis





EUR/USD Analysis: Weak Uptrend Correction Attempts


As we mentioned before, selling operations increased considering the strength of the US dollar in the Forex currency market, with momentum from the positive results of US economic data, because of which expectations weakened of the imminent date of reducing US interest rates. On the other hand, the euro price received downward pressure as the European Central Bank became the closest to reducing interest rates.

Economic Calendar Outlook

The EU Harmonized Consumer Price Index for March was in line with expectations (monthly) of 0.8%, unchanged from the previous update. The core HICP for the period also remained steady at 2.9%, in line with estimates. Also, the (monthly) equivalent remained unchanged from the previous period at 1.1%. On Tuesday, US building permits for March exceeded expectations of 1.514 million with a total of 1.458 million. Also, housing starts for the period were below the expected 1.48 million with a total of 1.321 million. On the other hand, industrial production for March was in line with estimates of 0.4%. Moreover, US retail sales for March beat expectations (monthly) of 0.3% with a change of 0.7%. furthermore, Retail sales excluding autos for the period exceeded expectations of 0.4% with a change of 1.1% (monthly).









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USDJPY Analysis






USD/JPY Analysis: Eyes Watching Japan's Action Cautiously


For his part, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said: "It is clear that the latest data has not given us more confidence, and instead suggests that it will likely take longer than expected to achieve that confidence."

In general, expectations for US rate cuts in 2024 have fallen to just 38 basis points (one 25 basis point cut) after the comments, further supporting US bond yields and the dollar. Commenting on the performance of the US dollar, Jamie Dutta, head of forex analysis at Vantage Markets, which provides forex trading accounts, says: "The US dollar has hit its cycle highs, rising for the fifth consecutive day." "Fed Chair Powell backed away from comments about rate cuts."

In comments made alongside Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, Powell said: "If high inflation persists, we can keep the current level of as long as needed."

Meanwhile, markets had entered 2024 expecting cuts of up to 150 basis points in 2024; this has been reduced to just 38 in the repricing that has boosted US bond yields and attracted foreign currency inflows to the US dollar. At the same time, the decline in global equity markets reflects a decline in investor confidence, which is boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. This creates a win-win scenario for the US currency, and further progress is likely.









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Dollar pulls back, but yen hits new 34-year low



Dollar loses ground against risk-linked currencies - But yen continues to slide to new 34-year low - Stocks rebound, gold falls on easing geopolitical concerns

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TP 2314
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SL 2330


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USDCHF Sell

Opening Price - 0.91440

TP 1 - 0.91240
TP 2 - 0.90940
TP 3 - 0.90540

StopLoss - 0.92040

TimeFrame - 1h


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TP 2318
TP 2316
TP 2314
TP 2312
TP 2310

SL 2330


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TP 1 achieved... ✅

TrennixGLOBAL:
USDCHF Sell

Opening Price - 0.91440

TP 1 - 0.91240
TP 2 - 0.90940
TP 3 - 0.90540

StopLoss - 0.92040

TimeFrame - 1h


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Euro gains against the dollar amid mixed economic signals


The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0707 on Wednesday, driven by increased local risk appetite and the belief that the currency was significantly oversold against the US dollar. This resurgence indicates a temporary rebalancing in the currency market.

USD/JPY Analysis: Stability Around Intervention Levels


- Despite daily Japanese warnings about the imminent date of intervention in the Forex currency markets to prevent further collapse of the Japanese yen exchange rate, the upward trend of the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen “USD/JPY” is getting stronger.
- It is currently around the 155.00 resistance, its highest level in 34 years.
- Currently, it seems that the markets see the intervention as being verbal now. In addition to intervention in currency markets, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged next Friday, with investors focusing on any hints of a less pessimistic bias with the yen trading around its lowest level in 34 years.


Technically, the general trend of the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen “USD/JPY” is still bullish, and its gains were sufficient to push all the technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. Therefore, we still prefer to sell the dollar against the yen from its current and higher record gains without risk. In the event of a Japanese intervention in the markets, it may the currency pair is exposed to strong selling operations to take profits, with the trend quickly turning downward.

GBP/USD Analysis: Avoiding Further Collapse


- Since yesterday's session, the British pound has been recovering against the euro and US dollar currencies, after data showed the strength of the economic recovery in April, as well as the inflationary pressures facing businesses in the UK.
- According to forex trading platforms, the GBP/USD British Pound to US Dollar price moved towards the 1.2465 resistance level before settling around 1.2430 at the time of writing the analysis, awaiting new motivating factors to avoid further collapse.



According to the performance on the daily chart, the gains in the price of the British pound against the US dollar “GBP/USD” did not exit the currency pair from the general downward trend. A first break may occur over that time period if the currency pair moves towards the resistance levels of 1.2550 and 1.2700, respectively.

Otherwise, the chances of a decline will remain stronger, especially since the Bank of England officials have increased the pressure on the sterling regarding the date of the interest rate cut, which contradicts the US Federal Reserve. This may ensure that the bears control the direction of the currency pair for a period of time. Currently, the opportunity for the sterling dollar to return towards the psychological support of 1.2300 is possible again.