courage89: The only reason why I think the share price might do well in the short run and long run; will depend on how liquid the shares might be. Few shares will be in circulation, and that might drive "price war" considering how popular the company is.

It will not be based on fundamental at all.

Really?

Price discovery has always been based on laws of supply and demand anyway...people will buy and sell shyt if there's a market for it. The only question a savvy investor will be asking is why the price makes for a good investment....and talking about popularity, since when has that become a factor to consider when buying or selling shares?

violent:

Really?

Price discovery has always been based on laws of supply and demand anyway...people will buy and sell shyt if there's a market for it. The only question a savvy investor will be asking is why the price makes for a good investment....and talking about popularity, since when has that become a factor to consider when buying or selling shares?

Isn't that what is driving the stock right now? Most of these people could care less about the valuation...how many of them know how Facebook currently earn revenue?

courage89:

Thats not true? The OS may be free to users...but to companies who are using them as a "competitive advantage", they have to pay a royalty fee. Samsung and other smart phone makers run Android OS. The operating system is part of the reason why Samsung still maintains leadership in global smartphone marketshare.

Aren't the fees tiny? Minuscule?

I'm pretty sure that Google's fraction of profit/revenue from Android is tiny. If you have the numbers handy, kindly post/link to them.

Greed always kill even the best business principles. Facebook will have to answer investors when they don't meet expected quarters. Thats when companies get desperate and crazy shìt happens. .lol

Facebook will soon be gone

Sorry, don't have the figures.

ekt_bear: I think the reason Facebook will be pretty hard to dislodge is that they are pretty proactive about neutralizing threats.

Google+ came out, they implemented many of its best features into Fbook.

Instagram came out and started racking up users, they quickly purchase them before a rival (like Twitter or Google) could buy.

They are doing a pretty good job at this particular task, imo.

Being proactive at dislodging threats wouldn't always mean a great investment....and the implicit assumption that facebook directors will always be smart enough to take the best cakes on time cannot always be justified.

Facebook, unlike Google, owns very little patents and unlike Google, it's market is completely dependent on it's marketing revenue. Hardly a diversified business!....future regulations in privacy laws could hurt its business model forever!

Asides from that, there are no guarantees anywhere that it could keep up with rapid changes in consumer preferences for a nimbler, faster, tech landscape...It's already too late to delve into mobile phone OS (Android and Apple will easily snuff the life out it)....late to the hardware markets...late to the search engine games.....late to the email arena.....Should Google start a price war to win new marketing clients, someone's going to get really hurt!

At the moment, the 109billion dollar company has been unable to make money from users who access facebook through mobile phones....given that most people are likely to be frustrated if tons of advert keep staring right back at them on their 9inch screen!....So what then happens to facebook's business if me and the rest of the world decide that our laptops are too big to surf the internet with and would rather stick to our phones?

401kk: Facebook will soon be gone

Facebook is here to stay, that i can tell you.
What still remains a "code" to be cracked is how they're going to monetize their 901 million people.
Keep in mind, if they don't crack the code. They can always diversify. When you have cash, you can do anything.

My conclusion, FACEBOOK IS HERE TO STAY. The next question is when are they going to be profitable?

courage89:

Isn't that what is driving the stock right now? Most of these people could care less about the valuation...how many of them know how Facebook currently earn revenue?

Intraday prices will always be driven by both Technicals and fundamentals. As a matter of fact, one can argue that facebook's price is being driven by the latter than the former. Those buying and selling Facebook's shares are not looking at a price history, candle charts or any of those nonsense, cos there is just no history to look at!....The buying and selling that's going on at the moment is based on what people think facebook is worth and will be worth in the future. The company's revenue and balance sheet is publicly listed and can be assessed by anyone who can as much as use Google search!

courage89:

Facebook is here to stay, that i can tell you.
What still remains a "code" to be cracked is how they're going to monetize their 901 million people.
Keep in mind, if they don't crack the code. They can always diversify. When you have cash, you can do anything.

My conclusion, FACEBOOK IS HERE TO STAY. The next question is when are they going to be profitable?

And why buy a company that doesn't know how they are going to be profitable....yet?

Why buy a company that, after years of existence has no clue how to monetize it's growing subscribers?....even though it employs some of the smartest people in the world.

Why buy a company that will only plan to diversify when it cannot crack the "code" which will make it profitable in the long term.....diversify into what?...why not diversify now?

Tech bubbles...housing bubbles...all began because people thought the goodies they were having will continue forever....and they told the cynics off saying "when we get to that bridge, we'd cross it" ....it's all happening again!

courage89:

Facebook is here to stay, that i can tell you.
What still remains a "code" to be cracked is how they're going to monetize their 901 million people.
Keep in mind, if they don't crack the code. They can always diversify. When you have cash, you can do anything.

My conclusion, FACEBOOK IS HERE TO STAY. The next question is when are they going to be profitable?

Of course facebook as a social networking site is here to stay. But they made the biggest mistake in going public. They have given G+ the best opportunity to leverage.

violent:


Intraday prices will always be driven by both Technicals and fundamentals. As a matter of fact, one can argue that facebook's price is being driven by the latter than the former. Those buying and selling Facebook's shares are not looking at a price history, candle charts or any of those nonsense, cos their's just no history to look at!....The buying and selling that's going on at the moment is based on what people think facebook is worth and will be worth in the future. The company's revenue and balance sheet is publicly listed and can be assessed by anyone who can as much as use Google search!

To your first point, i beg to differ. That statement will be accurate if all the people trading stocks understand both technical and fundamentals, and can apply them accurately. Your point is also neglecting the role of economic and political situation of the country.
As an example; Chevron is currently trading at $98.50, RSI of about (22-25), PE ratio = 7.26
Based on the technical and fundamental argument, the Chevron stock should be trading higher. The reality is that, its been in the red all day. lost about 1.7% of its value today.

courage89:
What still remains a "code" to be cracked is how they're going to monetize their 901 million people.
Keep in mind, if they don't crack the code. They can always diversify. When you have cash, you can do anything.

My conclusion, FACEBOOK IS HERE TO STAY. The next question is when are they going to be profitable?

They only way they can monetise their user database is if they sell it(thats the only way I can think of).
How can they diversify or where will they diversify to?
Facebook is already a profitable company, but after the IPO, they need to be more profitable to meet the expectations of investors. If they can't, things might get messy

Keep it up, guys! I like the way guys are keeping it civil. My two cent: the facebook phenomenon may eventually turn out to be ephemeral. You can be too sure what will become of fb 10 years from nw. There is nothing bad if one decides to get his own share of the cake now.

401kk:

They only way they can monetise their user database is if they sell it(thats the only way I can think of).
How can they diversify or where will they diversify to?
Facebook is already a profitable company, but after the IPO, they need to be more profitable to meet the expectations of investors. If they can't, things might get messy

They have other means of monetizing besides selling database. Currently, they make money from add, content text, and from gamers. They have room to grow to generate revenue. The question still remains, can they unlock those other potential? How are they going to fend off competition, RenRen and others?

They can diversify by buying other technology company. They can buy operating system companies, and build organically to compete head on with MS, Google, Apple. They can buy manufacturing company, and integrate the company with Facebook competitive advantage. They can venture into cloud computing and integrate the company with their core competency. My point is; they have options, they have the people and the money. What else do you need.

afam4eva:
Must they produce bags of rice like dangote before you know that they have a product? See MUMU.

Ask him what product AIT or CNN produce

THE ONLY THING SAVING FACEBOOK IS GOING PUBLIC, MYSPACE AND THE REST I ASSUME DIDNT GO PUBLIC, ITS TIMEE FOR MARK TO HANDOVER CEO OF FACEBOOK AND GET A NEW PRIVATE DREAM.

It's now obvious and sad to envisage how corrupt and deceitful we are as a nation. I was forced to reply this post after a year on these forum. I'm sorry whoever you may be, you're a blatant liar to come on this forum trying to portray who you're not. I have an account with TDAmeritrade & Schwab respectively & live in America and still serve in the U.S Army,
yet i had no access to this IPO. I can give you names of BIG investors that were given a stake in this offer and how much was allocated to each. Just to correct some misleading trend on this forum. You can look me up on my facebk, i'm not anonymous. Let's try to be honest in everything we do. Nigeria is in a pathetic situation today because of people like you on these forum.

playboy19:

I just signed out of my Schwab account now... i bought some. And Yes i'm a Nigerian

courage89:

To your first point, i beg to differ. That statement will be accurate if all the people trading stocks understand both technical and fundamentals, and can apply them accurately. Your point is also neglecting the role of economic and political situation of the country.
As an example; Chevron is currently trading at $98.50, RSI of about (22-25), PE ratio = 7.26
Based on the technical and fundamental argument, the Chevron stock should be trading higher. The reality is that, its been in the red all day. lost about 1.7% of its value today.

Anyone buying stocks must have some kind of fundamental story or a technical one!....There's no middle ground!

Fundamentals doesn't always have to mean spending hours a company's balance sheet/Income statements. Fundamentals simply refers to the information you have. Such information could be as lame as "My friend said it's a good investment" or as sophisticated as estimating earnings growth etc etc.

People won't just buy stock because it's a stock!

Political and Economic situations are part of the bigger fundamental story. If you think Europe is going to collapse with it's sovereign debts and company xyz whose biggest clients are based in europe may not be able to generate much revenue...that's a fundamental story, good enough for selling a stock and force it's earning multiples to low figures!

[i][/i][i][/i]Facebook has gone public making it's founder Mark Zuckerberg one of the richest people in the world today.

Let's hope Nairaland doesn't undergo another theme change as Seun begins preparing to tow the facebook line.


And you think he is not capable of it

the share price is $38 not $40 or $42. if you want to invest,
call me on 08036954468 while offer lasts!!!

[size=18pt]They can diversify by buying Nairaland buying facebook shares HELL NO [/size]

EPOMA:
he is not Mumu, you may probably be the Mumu at last , this is just over the top ask yahoo share buyer. the earlier you know that this is a junk, the better. Humans always change

You guys still have myopic minds...u need to wakeup and start thinking big...the whole world is willing to buy fb shares...stop seeing the negative sides of any idea. Think and get wealthy now.

if facebook is moving into realtime, then shouldnt most of the folks on nl do the same?

especially the ones who spend all day cooking up stories to start threads with.

All I can tell you guys is LinkedIn gain over 100% in its first IPO day, from $45 to around $100. Imagine how many millions people made in just a single day, since thousands were able to buy at the opening rate of $45. Now Facebook is earning much more than LinkedIn, and is worth much more than LinkedIn, so if you compare it to LinkedIn alone, you will at least predict Facebook shares to raise to at least nothing less than $200 per share in the first week. This week has been a very hard week for the NASDAQ and the moment they bounce back, you will see FB shooting up like crazy. If you bought your FB shares today and you are wondering why it closed with a gain of just 23 cents, don't worry and wait for the opening next week, you will be surprised!
PS: I am not a stock expert, nor a wall street trader, just an opinion.

gbadexy:
Ask him what product AIT or CNN produce

mugus
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-shares-open-42-05-154917287.html

sojinet:

You guys still have myopic minds...u need to wakeup and start thinking big...the whole world is willing to buy fb shares...stop seeing the negative sides of any idea. Think and get wealthy now.

mugu be sure to read the comments too. thinking big indeed

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-shares-open-42-05-154917287.html

buzugee: mugu be sure to read the comments too. thinking big indeed

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-shares-open-42-05-154917287.html

THE WHOLE WORLD CAN BE FOOLISH SOMETIMES, ITS THE FOOLISHNESS OF THE WORLD THAT CAUSED THE GREAT DEPRESSION, ITS THE SAME REASON THAT WE DO NOT HAVE UP 1 MILLION BILLIONAIRES IN A PLANET OF 7 BILLION PEOPLE. FACEBOOK PUBLIC OFFER IS ONE OF THOSE FOOLISH DECISIONS A NIGERIAN CAN MAKE IN BUYING INTO. THOSE ADS ON THAT SITE WONT GENERATE ENOUGH INCOME FOR THE SHARE HOLDERS.

auwal87: All I can tell you guys is LinkedIn gain over 100% in its first IPO day, from $45 to around $100. Imagine how many millions people made in just a single day, since thousands were able to buy at the opening rate of $45. Now Facebook is earning much more than LinkedIn, and is worth much more than LinkedIn, so if you compare it to LinkedIn alone, you will at least predict Facebook shares to raise to at least nothing less than $200 per share in the first week. This week has been a very hard week for the NASDAQ and the moment they bounce back, you will see FB shooting up like crazy. If you bought your FB shares today and you are wondering why it closed with a gain of just 23 cents, don't worry and wait for the opening next week, you will be surprised!
PS: I am not a stock expert, nor a wall street trader, just an opinion.

JUST LIKE YOU SAID, YOU ARE NEITHER A WALL STREET GUY NOR STOCK EXPERT, YOUR OPINION IS NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY COS UNLIKE LINKEDIN, FACEBOOK SHARES WILL KEEP DROPPING AS IT DID TODAY BEFORE IT WAS SALVAGED