1. Returning APC to power, after the colossal failure of the 8 year Buhari administration of the APC.

Forget the innuendo of the brain dead vulture griller and it's 'darling daddy' drab lines courtesy 'dem manna', this is one rabbit hole I didn't expect even 500000 people to fall into. After what Buhari did to Nigeria, why would any right-thinking person want to trust/reward the APC with power again? When you reward incompetence so consistently, you embolden it and institutionalise it, as is the case today, yesterday, and possibly evermore..(cos I don't know what the hell these people are smoking). The right thing is the APC should not have been rewarded for failure. Even if I supported Obi and he lost, i would have been proud of Nigerians if they had voted Monkey party, worm party, just about any party but the disaster called the APC

2. Fuel Subsidy and Naira Float misadventure

I sell cars, and in January I sold the last V6 vehicle I had in stock, I also purchased 500l of fuel for keeps (which lasted me till October thankfully). I did all that because I expected and support the idea of fuel subsidy removal. What I did not expect, was Bola Thubv would win and repeat the same mistakes that Buhari/Emefiele made on a more disastrous scale. In 2015, Buhari took the equally 'bold' step to remove subsidy. Fast forward to second qtr 2016, he also foolishly decided to float the naira. What happened? The dollar moved from 180/200s to 360/400's. Because we import fuel, this impacted the fuel costs which had been largely stable from May 2015 till that time, and that my friends sealed the glorious return of the subsidy to keep costs at 145/l. Low FX earnings plus high corruption meant the dollar started taking flight in no-time, and that my friends sealed the return of defending the naira. But the damage had been done innit? This arrogant clueless nigga thought it was a good idea to remove subsidy and float naira at the same damn time and some applauded. Again, what are these people smoking? Your Messiah only just made things a whole lot worse for you, and just like in 2015, subsidy is back, and naira defence will be televised (dem still dey disguise, just wait a bit). What have they gained from the misadventure, Nothingness! Scratch that,they achieved something. For the first time they achieved a scenario where majority of Nigerians in Nigeria have lost faith in the naira. That wasn't the case even last year or two years ago. The right thing was to remove subsidy, and still defend the naira to keep the effects of the subsidy removal controlled. If you were hypothetically using 1trillion on subsidy per month, ain't it just common sense to use say 300billion to defend naira and still partly save 700bllion that would have gone into subsidy. The drop in the value of the naira which had affected everything else would not have happened, it was totally avoidable but for the arrogant and reckless Thubv. How could these people vote APC??

3. Cardunce-o The CBN Governor

Need I say more? In a time of economic peril one should expect a reasonable govt to put square pegs in square holes. But no, they put a goat in charge of yam. All the real sectors are declaring bumper losses, only banks are declaring bumper profits, same caucus that Cardunce-o is part of same caucus that has benefitted from round tripping and arbitrage, is the same individual that Thubv thought right to head the CBN, an individual that managed a low-tier bank with probably less than 15 branches, na im Una expect to formulate sound policies in a time of economic peril? Laughable! The right thing to do would have been to recruit a capable, skilled and vastly experienced economist someone with a brain and resume like NOI. No cap, with my tiny MBA I go bench Cardunce-o, tell Thubv to ring me up asap!

4. Propaganda on overdrive

The level of insincerity is mind-boggling and irritating. The lies are too much. You literally can't trust a word these mofos are saying ever. Thank God for the individuals who dey leak some of their plans to the press. Thank God for the internet, we would have been so much in the dark on everything. We would probably be planning a Dubai trip riding on the words of Ajuri and get gobsmacked upon the feedback from the visa application. The right thing...is impossible to do for this govt. They are relentlessly untruthful, deceitful, self-serving and incapable of doing the right thing. It is their MO.

5. The oga pata pata of them all still somewhat linked to insincerity, is inconsistency. There is such a wide variation between 'What they say/preach' Vs 'What they stand for' Vs What they do. Again this is their MO. One minute Buhari says let's buy naira to grow Naira, but he patronised absolutely nothing local himself for 8years. Reduce medical tourism, but na him tour pass. These ones say na Nigeria importation dey cause palaver,but dem dey threaten cement manufacturers say dem go allow import of cement (no be same dollar u go use buy am). You say you dey find FDI, but organisations that have been around for 100years are packing up and leaving in droves, and then you use Gestapo style take hold binance crew say na them turn your naira to tissue paper. The FDI cheques don dey come through DHL you hear. Just 'contunu'

Feel free to digest, share, critique these cogent points. See you all on the one year anniversary of the great Tinubulation come May 29.

Nlfpmod Seun oam4j fp for a wider audience, maybe someone close to the 'presidency' can copy this for Baba or Cardunce-o to implement

Lest I forget, feel free to add the things they are getting right, IF ANY.

https://www.nairaland.com/7923805/nigeria-gdp-drops-500b-290b

https://www.nairaland.com/8021631/south-africa-overtakes-nigeria-biggest/1#128804857

Still on floatation principle isonu.. Awon adagba ma danu, awon agun ma niye!

Grandstar this was my stand when we last thrashed these economy issues, as at when emilocorn came in and dabaru everything, although my prescription wasn't this detailed. I'd like to read your thoughts, cos I have been seeing your posts which suggests that you have also started to see the reality for what it is and what is not.

Treadway:
1. Returning APC to power, after the colossal failure of the 8 year Buhari administration of the APC.

Forget the innuendo of the brain dead vulture griller and it's 'darling daddy' drab lines courtesy 'dem manna', this is one rabbit hole I didn't expect even 500000 people to fall into. After what Buhari did to Nigeria, why would any right-thinking person want to trust/reward the APC with power again? When you reward incompetence so consistently, you embolden it and institutionalise it, as is the case today, yesterday, and possibly evermore..(cos I don't know what the hell these people are smoking). The right thing is the APC should not have been rewarded for failure. Even if I supported Obi and he lost, i would have been proud of Nigerians if they had voted Monkey party, worm party, just about any party but the disaster called the APC

2. Fuel Subsidy and Naira Float misadventure

I sell cars, and in January I sold the last V6 vehicle I had in stock, I also purchased 500l of fuel for keeps (which lasted me till October thankfully). I did all that because I expected and support the idea of fuel subsidy removal. What I did not expect, was Bola Thubv would win and repeat the same mistakes that Buhari/Emefiele made on a more disastrous scale. In 2015, Buhari took the equally 'bold' step to remove subsidy. Fast forward to second qtr 2016, he also foolishly decided to float the naira. What happened? The dollar moved from 180/200s to 360/400's. Because we import fuel, this impacted the fuel costs which had been largely stable from May 2015 till that time, and that my friends sealed the glorious return of the subsidy to keep costs at 145/l. Low FX earnings plus high corruption meant the dollar started taking flight in no-time, and that my friends sealed the return of defending the naira. But the damage had been done innit? This arrogant clueless nigga thought it was a good idea to remove subsidy and float naira at the same damn time and some applauded. Again, what are these people smoking? Your Messiah only just made things a whole lot worse for you, and just like in 2015, subsidy is back, and naira defence will be televised (dem still dey disguise, just wait a bit). What have they gained from the misadventure, Nothingness! Scratch that,they achieved something. For the first time they achieved a scenario where majority of Nigerians in Nigeria have lost faith in the naira. That wasn't the case even last year or two years ago. The right thing was to remove subsidy, and still defend the naira to keep the effects of the subsidy removal controlled. If you were hypothetically using 1trillion on subsidy per month, ain't it just common sense to use say 300billion to defend naira and still partly save 700bllion that would have gone into subsidy. The drop in the value of the naira which had affected everything else would not have happened, it was totally avoidable but for the arrogant and reckless Thubv. How could these people vote APC??

3. Cardunce-o The CBN Governor

Need I say more? In a time of economic peril one should expect a reasonable govt to put square pegs in square holes. But no, they put a goat in charge of yam. All the real sectors are declaring bumper losses, only banks are declaring bumper profits,same caucus that Cardunce-o is part of same caucus that has befitted from round tripping and arbitrage, is the same individual that Thubv thought right to head the CBN, an individual that managed a low-tier bank with probably less than 15 branches, na im Una expect to formulate sound policies in a time of economic peril? Laughable! The right thing to do would have been to recruit a capable, skilled and vastly experienced economist someone with a brain and resume like NOI. No cap, with my tiny MBA I go bench Cardunce-o, tell Thubv to ring me up asap!

4. Propaganda on overdrive

The level of insincerity is mind-boggling and irritating. The lies are too much. You literally can't trust a word these mofos are saying ever. Thank God for the individuals who dey leak some of their plans to the press. Thank God for the internet, we would have been so much in the dark on everything. We would probably be planning a Dubai trip riding on the words of Ajuri and get gobsmacked upon the feedback from the visa application. The right thing...is impossible to do for this govt. They are relentlessly untruthful, deceitful, self-serving and incapable of doing the right thing. It is their MO.

5. The oga pata pata of them all still somewhat linked to insincerity, is inconsistency. There is such a wide variation between 'What they say/preach' Vs 'What they stand for' Vs What they do. Again this is their MO. One minute Buhari says let's buy naira to grow Naira, but he patronised absolutely nothing local himself for 8years. Reduce medical tourism, but na him tour pass. These ones say na Nigeria importation dey cause palaver,but dem dey threaten cement manufacturers say dem go allow import of cement (no be same dollar u go use buy am). You say you dey find FDI, but organisations that have been around for 100years are packing up and leaving in droves, and then you use Gestapo style take hold binance crew say na them turn your naira to tissue paper. The FDI cheques don dey come through DHL you hear. Just 'contunu'

Feel free to digest, share, critique these cogent points. See you all on the one year anniversary of the great Tinubulation come May 29.

Nlfpmod Seun oam4j fp for a wider audience, maybe someone close to the 'presidency' can copy this for Baba or Cardunce-o to implement

APC was never the problem. Buhari was.

He was grossly incompetent and many in his party knew that. I'm sure Tinubu realized so within 30 days of him assuming office.

However, the party had to put up with him as that was the only way they could hold on to piwer.

Though Buhari meant well, his poor intellectual background held him back. Many in his party called him an illiterate behind his back.

Tinubu is trying hard to undo the huge mess he left behind.

2. Buhari had no time ever attempted to float the Naira. There were 2 official rates from 2017 down to 2023. Where there's a float, there's only one official rate.

There was nothing wrong with floating the Naira. Tinubu wanted to wipe off the disparity between the official rate and black market rate which had been uses to siphon billions of dollars.

Since the floating, the disparity has closed. Yes, the floating was badly handled.

Also, one reason for the high inflation was the use of Ways and Means to finance the budget.

Ways and means is CBN printing of money to lend to the federal government. It is very inflationary. There's much more Naira chasing the same amount of Dollars and goods.

In addition, the CBN was and is still running a loose monetary policy. Economics dictates that the CBN interest rates must be above that of inflation, especially if inflation is high.

Inflation is 29% thereabouts while the CBN rates are circa 23%. If increased to around 30%, banks would buy up treasury bonds taking money out of the system. This would greatly reduce inflation.

However, Tinubu has said he wants interest rates low. The price we pay is therefore high inflation.

There was nothing wrong in removing subsidy and floating the Naira at the same time.

The truth is, he did not go far enough. Rather than just remove the subsidy on petrol, he should have fully deregulated the price of petrol as done alreasy with diesel, gas and kerosene. Government no longer fixes the price but it's left to market forces.

The benefit of full price deregulation of petrol would be massive. If anyone tells you the price would go down, he is deceiving you. It would only go down and up based on the price of crude oil and the value of the Naira. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same at $50/barrel and $80/barrel. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same when $1-800 and $1-1,200. You're an importer, so you will naturally understand these things.

The real benefit of petrol price deregulation is that it would lead to massive investment in the downstream sector of the economy There would be massive investments in the building of refineries.

When GSM started, there was deregulated pricing. GSM operators were free to charge their desired prices. MTN and AIRTEL charged N50/minute, while MTEL choose a masses friendly price of N22. The first two were able to invest billions of dollars because they charged prices that made them profitable. Mtel meanwhile is as dead as a dodo today..

Today, due to deregulated pricing, there are over 100m cell phone users, from 400,000 in year 2000.

Government should also have deregulated the price of electricity. Electricity is sold at subsidized prices. The federal government isvto make up the difference but it hasn't been faithful. Presently, it owes the Gencos $1.3bn and the Discos N1.3tr naira. With the fall of the Naira, the price of supplying electricity has gone further up, while the price of electricity has remained static since May last year. That is why hardly any power is being supplied.

3. Yemi Cardoso

The primary reason Tinubu appointed Cardoso was because he was probably his "boy." Many economists here criticized his appointment as he was unqualified to head the CBN ,especially at this critical moment in the nation's economy.

Tinubu wanted someone he could control. This is sad as the central bank has autonomy and it was to prevent such an unholy alliance the president now has with the sitting head.

It was also Buhari's interference with the CBNs duties that dealt the economy a heavy blow during his inglorious 8 years in office.

Well, it seems now the Naira is appreciating. It does not however change the need for a more competent head to be appointed for the central banks post.

4. I have to be honest with you, I am apolitical. I have no obsession with politics.

The biggest problem creeping up now is cronyism, nepotism and corruption.

You have the railway contract awarded to a suspicious company. You have the OPL 245 oil well awarded to Tinubu of OANDO. Tinubu's son in law was placed in charged of the Federal Mortgage Bank.

I doubt any privatization or commercialization carried under this government would be free and fair. For the free market to work properly, transparency is key. That is why the GSM auction in the early 2000s was met with praise and the country has benefitted greatly from it.

5. Nigeria never had an import problem. Nigerias problem has always been an export problem. The country is too reliant on crude oil exports for dollar inflows and when the oil price crashes, the Naira takes a beating. Since it was a reduction in dollars that brought about the problem, Nigeria needs to start exporting more non-oil products.

You said you're a car dealer. You probably import cars. Are you a liability to the nation? With your profits, don't you pay rent, build house, pay school fees, feed your family and so on? Don't you deposit some into the bank?

Imports are actually extremely good for the economy and is a recognized driver of growth.

That is why import substitution policies are counterproductive. In addition, countries do best when they pour into areas they have competitive and comparative advantage. Import substitution encourages the pouring of resources where you don't do well.

Look at cement. All what the cement ban did was to make two Nigerians dollar billionaires. Everyone knows that Nigerians are overcharged for cement. The profit margins these guys make is unheard in the industry. It is the kind of margins online game makers make, who store no physical inventory.

The building industry suffers because of the ban. It wasn't Tinubu that banned the importation but Obj.

If companies are packing out, it is due to the severity of the mess Buhari left behind. There was $7bn uncleared forex contracts while there was barely $3bn left in the foreign reserves. It was the shortage of foreign reserves that made many of these companies quit the country.

The proper thing for Nigeria to have done would have been to contact the IMF for balance of payment support in the form of a loan. The IMF would lend Nigeria $20bn for it to build its reserves. When Nigeria has rebuilt its reserves, the country will repay it. Tinubu knew Nigerians wouldn't welcome that and would blame any painful economic policy on the IMF, without seeing why.

grandstar:


APC was never the problem. Buhari was.

He was grossly incompetent and many in his party knew that. I'm sure Tinubu realized so within 30 days of him assuming office.

However, the party had to put up with him as that was the only way they could hold on to piwer.

Though Buhari meant well, his poor intellectual background held him back. Many in his party called him an illiterate behind his back.

Tinubu is trying hard to undo the huge mess he left behind.

2. Buhari had no time ever attempted to float the Naira. There were 2 official rates from 2017 down to 2023. Where there's a float, there's only one official rate.

There was nothing wrong with floating the Naira. Tinubu wanted to wipe off the disparity between the official rate and black market rate which had been uses to siphon billions of dollars.

Since the floating, the disparity has closed. Yes, the floating was badly handled.

Also, one reason for the high inflation was the use of Ways and Means to finance the budget.

Ways and means is CBN printing of money to lend to the federal government. It is very inflationary. There's much more Naira chasing the same amount of Dollars and goods.

In addition, the CBN was and is still running a loose monetary policy. Economics dictates that the CBN interest rates must be above that of inflation, especially if inflation is high.

Inflation is 29% thereabouts while the CBN rates are circa 23%. If increased to around 30%, banks would buy up treasury bonds taking money out of the system. This would greatly reduce inflation.

However, Tinubu has said he wants interest rates low. The price we pay is therefore high inflation.

There was nothing wrong in removing subsidy and floating the Naira at the same time.

The truth is, he did not go far enough. Rather than just remove the subsidy on petrol, he should have fully deregulated the price of petrol as done alreasy with diesel, gas and kerosene. Government no longer fixes the price but it's left to market forces.

The benefit of full price deregulation of petrol would be massive. If anyone tells you the price would go down, he is deceiving you. It would only go down and up based on the price of crude oil and the value of the Naira. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same at $50/barrel and $80/barrel. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same when $1-800 and $1-1,200. You're an importer, so you will naturally understand these things.

The real benefit of petrol price deregulation is that it would lead to massive investment in the downstream sector of the economy There would be massive investments in the building of refineries.

When GSM started, there was deregulated pricing. GSM operators were free to charge their desired prices. MTN and AIRTEL charged N50/minute, while MTEL choose a masses friendly price of N22. The first two were able to invest billions of dollars because they charged prices that made them profitable. Mtel meanwhile is as dead as a dodo today..

Today, due to deregulated pricing, there are over 100m cell phone users, from 400,000 in year 2000.

Government should also have deregulated the price of electricity. Electricity is sold at subsidized prices. The federal government isvto make up the difference but it hasn't been faithful. Presently, it owes the Gencos $1.3bn and the Discos N1.3tr naira. With the fall of the Naira, the price of supplying electricity has gone further up, while the price of electricity has remained static since May last year. That is why hardly any power is being supplied.

3. Yemi Cardoso

The primary reason Tinubu appointed Cardoso was because he was probably his "boy." Many economists here criticized his appointment as he was unqualified to head the CBN ,especially at this critical moment in the nation's economy.

Tinubu wanted someone he could control. This is sad as the central bank has autonomy and it was to prevent such an unholy alliance the president now has with the sitting head.

It was also Buhari's interference with the CBNs duties that dealt the economy a heavy blow during his inglorious 8 years in office.

Well, it seems now the Naira is appreciating. It does not however change the need for a more competent head to be appointed for the central banks post.

4. I have to be honest with you, I am apolitical. I have no obsession with politics.

The biggest problem creeping up now is cronyism, nepotism and corruption.

You have the railway contract awarded to a suspicious company. You have the OPL 245 oil well awarded to Tinubu of OANDO. Tinubu's son in law was placed in charged of the Federal Mortgage Bank.

I doubt any privatization or commercialization carried under this government would be free and fair. For the free market to work properly, transparency is key. That is why the GSM auction in the early 2000s was met with praise and the country has benefitted greatly from it.

5. Nigeria never had an import problem. Nigerias problem has always been an export problem. The country is too reliant on crude oil exports for dollar inflows and when the oil price crashes, the Naira takes a beating. Since it was a reduction in dollars that brought about the problem, Nigeria needs to start exporting more non-oil products.

You said you're a car dealer. You probably import cars. Are you a liability to the nation? With your profits, don't you pay rent, build house, pay school fees, feed your family and so on? Don't you deposit some into the bank?

Imports are actually extremely good for the economy and is a recognized driver of growth.

That is why import substitution policies are counterproductive. In addition, countries do best when they pour into areas they have competitive and comparative advantage. Import substitution encourages the pouring of resources where you don't do well.

Look at cement. All what the cement ban did was to make two Nigerians dollar billionaires. Everyone knows that Nigerians are overcharged for cement. The profit margins these guys make is unheard in the industry. It is the kind of margins online game makers make, who store no physical inventory.

The building industry suffers because of the ban. It wasn't Tinubu that banned the importation but Obj.

If companies are packing out, it is due to the severity of the mess Buhari left behind. There was $7bn uncleared forex contracts while there was barely $3bn left in the foreign reserves. It was the shortage of foreign reserves that made many of these companies quit the country.

The proper thing for Nigeria to have done would have been to contact the IMF for balance of payment support in the form of a loan. The IMF would lend Nigeria $20bn for it to build its reserves. When Nigeria has rebuilt its reserves, the country will repay it. Tinubu knew Nigerians wouldn't welcome that and would blame any painful economic policy on the IMF, without seeing why.

did you just say Buhari never floated the naira?? Wrong! He definitely did as you can see below. Same thing now almost exactly as it happened in 2015/2016 by the same ill-fated party called the APC.

https://techpoint.africa/2023/06/16/cbn-naira-float-2016-failed/

https://dailypost.ng/2016/06/15/breaking-cbn-officially-floats-naira/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nairametrics.com/2016/07/30/chart-shows-the-naira-is-now-officially-floating/%3famp=1

Cmon bro, you have engaged in discussions with me a couple of times on here. I do not speak emphatically on things I'm not 💯 sure of. If I'm emphatic about it, best believe I know what I'm saying is fact and I can back it up with proof.

Will address some of the other points you touched on shortly

Treadway:
did you just say Buhari never floated the naira?? Wrong! He definitely did as you can see below. Same thing now almost exactly as it happened in 2015/2016 by the same ill-fated party called the APC.

https://techpoint.africa/2023/06/16/cbn-naira-float-2016-failed/

https://dailypost.ng/2016/06/15/breaking-cbn-officially-floats-naira/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nairametrics.com/2016/07/30/chart-shows-the-naira-is-now-officially-floating/%3famp=1

Cmon bro, you have engaged in discussions with me a couple of times on here. I do not speak emphatically on things I'm not 💯 sure of. If I'm emphatic about it, best believe I know what I'm saying is fact and I can back it up with proof.

Will address some of the other points you touched on shortly

The second subheading of the article portrays the truth of the 2016 so called float

https://techpoint.africa/2023/06/16/cbn-naira-float-2016-failed/

If Buhari refused to allow the official rate to be devalued, how can there be a float to start with? A float means the currency can go up and down and value.

It was in 2017 that a second official window was allowed and the exchange rate there was market determined. That brought some sanity back into the forex market and the artificial forex scarcity ended.

As the article said "pretense of a float."

Cc Sukkot kukutente23 angelfrost nairalanda1 bigiyanga invertedhammer lordadam16
I copied you guys cos like Grandstar, I largely enjoy the intelligence you typically display in your posts and in my interactions with you, even tho on some things/topics/concepts we may not agree (which is normal).

Phew this is gonna be a long one. Ok let me take it line by line

1. ApC is the problem. All indices you can think of compared to 2015 shows this clearly. There is no absolving APC from the mess Nigeria is in today, and trying to do so is simply not a truthful thing to do.

2.Yes Bubu was clueless, stupid in fact. But even I voted for him in 2015 ONLY cos I expected one thing and one thing only from him. Fighting corruption! Due to the so called no-nonsense person wey dem talk say e be back in the day. I know a tree doesn't make a forest, so I reckoned the team that would surround him can take care of the rest. I was wrong. And so yes Buhari was stupid, and was surrounded by people who apparently also were stupid including Tinubu according to you...cos all these people enabled him for 8 freaking years. They all contributed to the rot and decay that they are now supposedly cleaning. Ain't that funny...

3. I already showed you that Bubari/Emefiele floated the naira.

4. In our peculiar situation, I'd say the results we saw in 2015/2016 and the one we are seeing now shows clearly that it is a bad idea to undertake both big steps at once. I maintain my stand that subsidy should have been removed, but the naira should have been defended at least until some stability is achieved, as per Dangote and one or more other refineries running before making another big move in the form of the float.

5. They are telling y'all it's cos of the ways and means, but I know for a fact it goes deeper than that. Ways and means is a cool bad label to give the dog you wanna hang, but beyond ways and means the reason for the inflation aside the cost inflation due to the devaluation, is the excessively huge unbanked money that Emefoole was trying to mop up with the redesign policy at the tail end of the last administration. Do you remember the estimated figure of that unbanked money? Look it up. That money that was stockpiled for years and kept completely out of the banking system and meant to be used for electioneering, ended up not being used cos they rallied Nigerians to kill that laudable policy and that money is what is now causing a double whammy..on one hand most of it was being exchanged for USD causing the naira fall, and on the other hand causing the inflation too. But of course they won't remind you of that money, they will only touch on ways and means.

6. YEA YEA, the inflation rate and the MPR I understand the dynamics of that. But bear in mind it is a double edged sword. Too high and it could mean businesses that take loans would have to pay back above 30%....that is insanely high cost of capital don't you agree....but the useless banks rarely even lend to the real sectors and SMEs anyway👎

7. At least we both agreed that Cardunce-o is a dunce, and we also agree that this administration are grossly insincere, grossly inconsistent and simply cannot be trusted cos there is a wide variation between what they say and what they do, and what they say they do/are doing/have done (I'm actually surprised you admit this one).

8. Companies are pulling out due to dwindling revenues horribly compounded by devaluation losses, and consequently an ever increasing cost of doing business

grandstar:


The second subheading of the article portrays the truth of the 2016 so called float

https://techpoint.africa/2023/06/16/cbn-naira-float-2016-failed/

If Buhari refused to allow the official rate to be devalued, how can there be a float to start with? A float means the currency can go up and down and value.

It was in 2017 that a second official window was allowed and the exchange rate there was market determined. That brought some sanity back into the forex market and the artificial forex scarcity ended.

As the article said "pretense of a float."

why are you whining me na?? Buhari/Emefiele floated the naira. End of.

In two years from now, we will also be dissecting and discussing if Tinubu's float was a full float, or suspended float or super imposed float. But in that year/moment just as in this year/moment the naira was floated and subsidy was removed in both instances and it made the news in both instances.

I don't want to have to be dropping screenshots of the news pages na, but I'll ask anyone to click those links, read for yourselves and conclude. This is a screenshot from the one you just talked about. It was half hearted at first in the early stages but they followed through, only to backtrack later, as with subsidy payments too... remember this particular article was a review so it gave accounts in chronological order not in real time, the other news articles were in real time.

A poster above says Buhari had a 'poor intellectual background'. And the current man has what?

This administration made 2 major moves: the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the Naira.

Today the administration has reinstated the subsidy but it has not made the exact figures public...and there's a reason for that. One of the industry players (Pinnacle oil MD/CEO) said the subsidy now runs at N1 trillion per month currently. If the man is correct, that raises the question: What was the point of subsidy removal then?

Today the administration has taken at least one facility (Project Gazelle) that by the government's own admission will be used to prop up the currency. For how long will this 'intervention' be sustained...and more important, what was the point of the float in the first place then?

I am no seer but I wager that before the end of this year, this administration will again go before lawmakers to ask for approval for a supplementary budget to cover these costs. When that supplementary budget is passed, the real extent of the subsidy reinstatement will be known. The forex management outcomes is a little bit trickier to predict...but I ask the experts - what happens when you run out of money for currency defence?

Fujiyama:

A poster above says Buhari had a 'poor intellectual background'. And the current man has what?

This administration made 2 major moves: the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the Naira.

Today the administration has reinstated the subsidy but it has not made the exact figures public...and there's a reason for that. One of the industry players (Pinnacle oil MD/CEO) said the subsidy now runs at N1 trillion per month currently. If the manis correct, that raises the question: What was the point of subsidy removal then?

Today the administration has taken at least one facility (Project Gazelle) that by the government's own admission will be used to prop up the currency. For how long will this 'intervention' be sustained...and more important, what was the point of the float in the first place then?

I am no seer but I wager that before the end of this year, this administration will again go before lawmakers to ask for approval for a supplementary budget to cover these costs. When that supplementary budget is passed, the real extent of the subsidy reinstatement will be known. The forex management outcomes is a little bit trickier to predict...but I ask the experts - what happens when you run out of money for currency defence?

which is precisely why I responded to Grandstar in the words that I did. This Tinubu's supposed 'float' too will be dissected and discussed in years to come, maybe even much sooner than we think. So much is still unraveling and will still unravel. No be APC? Lol

Treadway:
Cc Sukkot kukutente23 angelfrost nairalanda1 bigiyanga invertedhammer lordadam16
I copied you guys cos like Grandstar, I largely enjoy the intelligence you typically display in your posts and in my interactions with you, even tho on some thing we may not agree (which is normal).

Phew this is gonna be a long one. Ok let me take it line by line

1. ApC is the problem. All indices you can think of compared to 2015 shows this clearly. There is no absolving APC from the mess Nigeria is in today, and trying to do so is simply not a truthful thing to do.

2.Yes Bubu was clueless, stupid in fact. But even I voted for him in 2015 ONLY cos I expected one thing and one thing only from him. Fighting corruption! Due to the so called no-nonsense person wey dem talk say e be back in the day. I know a tree doesn't make a forest, so I reckoned the team that would surround him can take care of the rest. I was wrong. And so yes Buhari was stupid, and was surrounded by people who apparently also were stupid including Tinubu according to you...cos all these people enabled him for 8 freaking years. They all contributed to the rot and decay that they are now supposedly cleaning. Ain't that funny...

3. I already showed you that Bubari/Emefiele floated the naira.

4. In our peculiar situation, I'd say the results we saw in 2015/2016 and the one we are seeing now shows clearly that it is a bad idea to undertake both big steps at once. I maintain my stand that subsidy should have been removed, but the naira should have been defended at least until some stability is achieved, as per Dangote and one or more other refineries running before making another big move in the form of the float.

5. They are telling y'all it's cos of the ways and means, but I know for a fact it goes deeper than that. Ways and means is a cool bad label to give the dog you wanna hang, but beyond ways and means the reason for the inflation aside the cost inflation due to the devaluation, is the excessively huge unbanked money that Emefoole was trying to mop up with the redesign policy at the tail end of the last administration. Do you remember the estimated figure of that unbanked money? Look it up. That money that was stockpiled for years and kept completely out of the banking system and meant to be used for electioneering, ended up not being used cos they rallied Nigerians to kill that laudable policy and that money is what is now causing a double whammy..on one hand most of it was being exchanged for USD causing the naira fall, and on the other hand causing the inflation too. But of course they won't remind you of that money, they will only touch on ways and means.

6. YEA YEA, the inflation rate and the MPR I understand the dynamics of that. But bear in mind it is a double edged sword. Too high and it could mean businesses that take loans would have to pay back above 30%....that is insanely high cost of capital don't you agree....but the useless banks rarely even lend to the real sectors and SMEs anyway👎

7. At least we both agreed that Cardunce-o is a dunce, and we also agree that this administration are grossly insincere, grossly inconsistent and simply cannot be trusted cos there is a wide variation between what they say and what they do, and what they say they do/are doing/have done (I'm actually surprised you admit this one).

8. Companies are pulling out due to dwindling revenues horribly compounded by devaluation losses, and consequently an ever increasing cost of doing business

hehe my guy Treadway you made good points however I don’t play politics with the bad decisions of men. No one was born with the tag APC or PDP and besides that these guys party hop all the time, the point being all politicians are on the same side. It’s politicians vs the masses. That little game and competition they have among themselves is to keep the masses divided. If the masses are not divided then a unified mass will come for their heads. So as you can see these their competition is to keep the masses divided while they all loot and eat together in the background. If you can get to this level of outlook you will see very clearly. There is no APC DESTROYED THE COUNTRY . When you say that you have fallen for the trick 😄😄😄😄. Don’t fall for the trick bro, rise above the madness to see it for what it is

Treadway:
Lest I forget, feel free to add the things they are getting right, IF ANY.

Thank God, you have finally conceded defeat and admitted that Tinubu actually won the election.
No more wailing over imaginary and non-existent stolen mandate again.
Reality has finally dawned on you.

sukkot:
hehe my guy Treadway you made good points however I don’t play politics with the bad decisions of men. No one was born with the tag APC or PDP and besides that these guys party hop all the time, the point being all politicians are on the same side. It’s politicians vs the masses. That little game and competition they have among themselves is to keep the masses divided. If the masses are not divided then a unified mass will come for their heads. So as you can see these their competition is to keep the masses divided while they all loot and eat together in the background. If you can get to this level of outlook you will see very clearly. There is no APC DESTROYED THE COUNTRY . When you say that you have fallen for the trick 😄😄😄😄. Don’t fall for the trick bro, rise above the madness to see it for what it is

🎯

sukkot:
hehe my guy Treadway you made good points however I don’t play politics with the bad decisions of men. No one was born with the tag APC or PDP and besides that these guys party hop all the time, the point being all politicians are on the same side. It’s politicians vs the masses. That little game and competition they have among themselves is to keep the masses divided. If the masses are not divided then a unified mass will come for their heads. So as you can see these their competition is to keep the masses divided while they all loot and eat together in the background. If you can get to this level of outlook you will see very clearly. There is no APC DESTROYED THE COUNTRY . When you say that you have fallen for the trick 😄😄😄😄. Don’t fall for the trick bro, rise above the madness to see it for what it is

but there is a cancer called the APC in this instance.

They came, sold us a lie and we bought it. We were tired of the mismanagement of the PDP, so I and Nigerians said we wanted change. Jonathan warned/asked that is it positive change we want or negative change, but we didn't listen. I made that mistake in 2015, but others willfully made same mistake in 2019 and even 2023 after almost being killed by Buhari.

I would give an arm and a limb to go back to 2012 to warn Nigerians not to listen to the charade called the 'save Nigeria group' and occupy Nigeria geng. If only subsidy was removed then and we still let PDP continue (as corrupt, useless and evil as they were), 2024 won't be like this, cos APC has shown unequivocally that they are far more corrupt, useless and evil..a far worse evil. ApC only came to grab power, nothing more, and unfortunately any chance the people had to unite to show them who is boss failed in 2023. I don't know about you but I would gladly love to wake up and find out it has all being such a horrid dream and we're still in 2015.

I still don't know why doing the right thing is so difficult for people in naija government. Don't they think? You have thousands of advisers but none of them gives the right advise. @op, nigerians will never learn. Tribalism has eaten deep into our system. The people in power know this and they drain every last bit of it from nigerians. Nigeria is incurable.

Treadway:
but there is a cancer called the APC in this instance.

They came, sold us a lie and we bought it. We were tired of the mismanagement of the PDP, so I and Nigerians said we wanted change. Jonathan warned/asked that is it positive change we want or negative change, but we didn't listen. I made that mistake in 2015, but others willfully made same mistake in 2019 and even 2023 after almost being killed by Buhari.

I would give an arm and a limb to go back to 2012 to warn Nigerians not to listen to the charade called the 'save Nigeria group' and occupy Nigeria geng. If only subsidy was removed then and we still let PDP continue (as corrupt, useless and evil as they were), 2024 won't be like this, cos APC has shown unequivocally that they are far more corrupt, useless and evil..a far worse evil. ApC only came to grab power, nothing more, and unfortunately any chance the people had to unite to show them who is boss failed in 2023. I don't know about you but I would gladly love to wake up and find out it has all being such a horrid dream and we're still in 2015.

well now you learnt your lesson and you are finding out that all politicians are scammers

grandstar:


APC was never the problem. Buhari was.

He was grossly incompetent and many in his party knew that. I'm sure Tinubu realized so within 30 days of him assuming office.

However, the party had to put up with him as that was the only way they could hold on to piwer.

Though Buhari meant well, his poor intellectual background held him back. Many in his party called him an illiterate behind his back.

Tinubu is trying hard to undo the huge mess he left behind.

2. Buhari had no time ever attempted to float the Naira. There were 2 official rates from 2017 down to 2023. Where there's a float, there's only one official rate.

There was nothing wrong with floating the Naira. Tinubu wanted to wipe off the disparity between the official rate and black market rate which had been uses to siphon billions of dollars.

Since the floating, the disparity has closed. Yes, the floating was badly handled.

Also, one reason for the high inflation was the use of Ways and Means to finance the budget.

Ways and means is CBN printing of money to lend to the federal government. It is very inflationary. There's much more Naira chasing the same amount of Dollars and goods.

In addition, the CBN was and is still running a loose monetary policy. Economics dictates that the CBN interest rates must be above that of inflation, especially if inflation is high.

Inflation is 29% thereabouts while the CBN rates are circa 23%. If increased to around 30%, banks would buy up treasury bonds taking money out of the system. This would greatly reduce inflation.

However, Tinubu has said he wants interest rates low. The price we pay is therefore high inflation.

There was nothing wrong in removing subsidy and floating the Naira at the same time.

The truth is, he did not go far enough. Rather than just remove the subsidy on petrol, he should have fully deregulated the price of petrol as done alreasy with diesel, gas and kerosene. Government no longer fixes the price but it's left to market forces.

The benefit of full price deregulation of petrol would be massive. If anyone tells you the price would go down, he is deceiving you. It would only go down and up based on the price of crude oil and the value of the Naira. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same at $50/barrel and $80/barrel. You can't expect the price of petrol to be the same when $1-800 and $1-1,200. You're an importer, so you will naturally understand these things.

The real benefit of petrol price deregulation is that it would lead to massive investment in the downstream sector of the economy There would be massive investments in the building of refineries.

When GSM started, there was deregulated pricing. GSM operators were free to charge their desired prices. MTN and AIRTEL charged N50/minute, while MTEL choose a masses friendly price of N22. The first two were able to invest billions of dollars because they charged prices that made them profitable. Mtel meanwhile is as dead as a dodo today..

Today, due to deregulated pricing, there are over 100m cell phone users, from 400,000 in year 2000.

Government should also have deregulated the price of electricity. Electricity is sold at subsidized prices. The federal government isvto make up the difference but it hasn't been faithful. Presently, it owes the Gencos $1.3bn and the Discos N1.3tr naira. With the fall of the Naira, the price of supplying electricity has gone further up, while the price of electricity has remained static since May last year. That is why hardly any power is being supplied.

3. Yemi Cardoso

The primary reason Tinubu appointed Cardoso was because he was probably his "boy." Many economists here criticized his appointment as he was unqualified to head the CBN ,especially at this critical moment in the nation's economy.

Tinubu wanted someone he could control. This is sad as the central bank has autonomy and it was to prevent such an unholy alliance the president now has with the sitting head.

It was also Buhari's interference with the CBNs duties that dealt the economy a heavy blow during his inglorious 8 years in office.

Well, it seems now the Naira is appreciating. It does not however change the need for a more competent head to be appointed for the central banks post.

4. I have to be honest with you, I am apolitical. I have no obsession with politics.

The biggest problem creeping up now is cronyism, nepotism and corruption.

You have the railway contract awarded to a suspicious company. You have the OPL 245 oil well awarded to Tinubu of OANDO. Tinubu's son in law was placed in charged of the Federal Mortgage Bank.

I doubt any privatization or commercialization carried under this government would be free and fair. For the free market to work properly, transparency is key. That is why the GSM auction in the early 2000s was met with praise and the country has benefitted greatly from it.

5. Nigeria never had an import problem. Nigerias problem has always been an export problem. The country is too reliant on crude oil exports for dollar inflows and when the oil price crashes, the Naira takes a beating. Since it was a reduction in dollars that brought about the problem, Nigeria needs to start exporting more non-oil products.

You said you're a car dealer. You probably import cars. Are you a liability to the nation? With your profits, don't you pay rent, build house, pay school fees, feed your family and so on? Don't you deposit some into the bank?

Imports are actually extremely good for the economy and is a recognized driver of growth.

That is why import substitution policies are counterproductive. In addition, countries do best when they pour into areas they have competitive and comparative advantage. Import substitution encourages the pouring of resources where you don't do well.

Look at cement. All what the cement ban did was to make two Nigerians dollar billionaires. Everyone knows that Nigerians are overcharged for cement. The profit margins these guys make is unheard in the industry. It is the kind of margins online game makers make, who store no physical inventory.

The building industry suffers because of the ban. It wasn't Tinubu that banned the importation but Obj.

If companies are packing out, it is due to the severity of the mess Buhari left behind. There was $7bn uncleared forex contracts while there was barely $3bn left in the foreign reserves. It was the shortage of foreign reserves that made many of these companies quit the country.

The proper thing for Nigeria to have done would have been to contact the IMF for balance of payment support in the form of a loan. The IMF would lend Nigeria $20bn for it to build its reserves. When Nigeria has rebuilt its reserves, the country will repay it. Tinubu knew Nigerians wouldn't welcome that and would blame any painful economic policy on the IMF, without seeing why.

in terms of length, you matched the poster but in content quality, I can't give you a 5%. You resorted to your normal tactics of presenting facts and making malicious deduction on one hand and outright lies on another.

Looking at the bold part up, naira was indeed floated by Buhari and emefiele. It was rather floated partially and many importers disowned by the gov. That was why some items had to be "excluded" from official forex rate of CBN.

Secondly, the official and parallel are only close as at today and not the same yet. So stop sounding as if they are.

CodeTemplar:
in terms of length, you matched the poster but in content quality, I can't give you a 5%. You resorted to your normal tactics of presenting facts and making malicious deduction on one hand and outright lies on another.

Looking at the bold part up, naira was indeed floated by Buhari and emefiele. It was rather floated partially and many importers disowned by the gov. That was why some items had to be "excluded" from official forex rate of CBN.

Secondly, the official and parallel are only close as at today and not the same yet. So stop sounding as if they are.

For your info, they were excluded mid 2015. The attempted "float" was in 2016.

They aren't related

Unwavering support for APC, despite the lies and propaganda of political opponents like the delusionist Obedients who cant accept election results. APCs achievements and contributions outweigh any mistakes, and the party deserves to be in power.

grandstar:


For your info, they were excluded mid 2015. The attempted "float" was in 2016.

They aren't related

from float to attempted float. Goal post go soon enter crowd.

grandstar:


For your info, they were excluded mid 2015. The attempted "float" was in 2016.

They aren't related

oga it was floated jare. No be pikin dey here now. I dey do many business deals with FX at the time so I can easily and vividly remember. Why else did the naira dip by almost 100% at the time? No be the range of 150-180 APC meet am?

The techpoint article I sent which you are now misinterpretating, reviewed the events of the 2016 float and its aftermath and was written in 2023, seven years after. Give it a little time and we will review balablu's supposed float.

Saying there was an attempted float when ALL the dailies in 2016 (some of which I also included in my post) says otherwise, is like saying there was an attempted subsidy removal in 2015. Was subsidy not removed in 2015, YES or NO?

That they backtracked on both doesn't mean they didn't happen in the first place. No dey shift goal post, it ain't fair or cool. Has balablu not codedly backtracked on subsidy now? So i guess I can call Tinubu's subsidy removal 'pretense' and 'attempted' subsidy removal less than one year after, using your logic. Come off it jare. Talk another one cos this one no enter.

Cc Seun
nlfpmod

Treadway:
Cc Sukkot kukutente23 angelfrost nairalanda1 bigiyanga invertedhammer lordadam16
I copied you guys cos like Grandstar, I largely enjoy the intelligence you typically display in your posts and in my interactions with you, even tho on some thing we may not agree (which is normal).

Phew this is gonna be a long one. Ok let me take it line by line

1. ApC is the problem. All indices you can think of compared to 2015 shows this clearly. There is no absolving APC from the mess Nigeria is in today, and trying to do so is simply not a truthful thing to do.

2.Yes Bubu was clueless, stupid in fact. But even I voted for him in 2015 ONLY cos I expected one thing and one thing only from him. Fighting corruption! Due to the so called no-nonsense person wey dem talk say e be back in the day. I know a tree doesn't make a forest, so I reckoned the team that would surround him can take care of the rest. I was wrong. And so yes Buhari was stupid, and was surrounded by people who apparently also were stupid including Tinubu according to you...cos all these people enabled him for 8 freaking years. They all contributed to the rot and decay that they are now supposedly cleaning. Ain't that funny...

3. I already showed you that Bubari/Emefiele floated the naira.

4. In our peculiar situation, I'd say the results we saw in 2015/2016 and the one we are seeing now shows clearly that it is a bad idea to undertake both big steps at once. I maintain my stand that subsidy should have been removed, but the naira should have been defended at least until some stability is achieved, as per Dangote and one or more other refineries running before making another big move in the form of the float.

5. They are telling y'all it's cos of the ways and means, but I know for a fact it goes deeper than that. Ways and means is a cool bad label to give the dog you wanna hang, but beyond ways and means the reason for the inflation aside the cost inflation due to the devaluation, is the excessively huge unbanked money that Emefoole was trying to mop up with the redesign policy at the tail end of the last administration. Do you remember the estimated figure of that unbanked money? Look it up. That money that was stockpiled for years and kept completely out of the banking system and meant to be used for electioneering, ended up not being used cos they rallied Nigerians to kill that laudable policy and that money is what is now causing a double whammy..on one hand most of it was being exchanged for USD causing the naira fall, and on the other hand causing the inflation too. But of course they won't remind you of that money, they will only touch on ways and means.

6. YEA YEA, the inflation rate and the MPR I understand the dynamics of that. But bear in mind it is a double edged sword. Too high and it could mean businesses that take loans would have to pay back above 30%....that is insanely high cost of capital don't you agree....but the useless banks rarely even lend to the real sectors and SMEs anyway👎

7. At least we both agreed that Cardunce-o is a dunce, and we also agree that this administration are grossly insincere, grossly inconsistent and simply cannot be trusted cos there is a wide variation between what they say and what they do, and what they say they do/are doing/have done (I'm actually surprised you admit this one).

8. Companies are pulling out due to dwindling revenues horribly compounded by devaluation losses, and consequently an ever increasing cost of doing business

/
A country of 240million subjugated by 1000 politicians, who is to blame? It means the problems go beyond the politicians. The national orientation was done in the wrong direction. Anyone born since 1980 in Nigeria has no idea of what good governance means even if shoved in his or her face. That's why they eulogize and canonize any governor that builds pedestrian bridges or pays salaries on time. Go figure!

/

InvertedHammer:


/
A country of 240million subjugated by 1000 politicians, who is to blame? It means the problems go beyond the politicians. The national orientation was done in the wrong direction. Anyone born since 1980 in Nigeria has no idea of what good governance means even if shoved in his or her face. That's why they eulogize and canonize any governor that builds pedestrian bridges or pays salaries on time. Go figure!

/

na so o.

So much recklessness, shamelessness and agony, and we just keep taking it. They have truly successfully furrcked up the psyche and mental form of a lot of the Nigerian populace🤷

CodeTemplar:
from float to attempted float. Goal post go soon enter crowd.

Question: Please mention one economist omohayek reveres?

grandstar:


Question: Please mention one economist omohayek reveres?

go and finish your fermented starch and oguo.

Nedekid

In all of these what I have observed or should I say what has become obvious to me is that even if the youth take over some aspects of our country’s politics one way or another they too will become corrupt because once they see the money they have access to they will not want to let it go. They will want to live large and that will make them to immediately abandon the cause they are fighting for. It takes someone with serious self discipline to enter politics and not become corrupt like most politicians are. Another problem that I have noticed over the years is that though there are some good, self disciplined politicians in nigeria but they are trying to play it safe. They don’t want to get themself or people close to them hurt while trying to fight for what is right. This is where their mistake lie. There is no battle/war without bloodshed. There is no victory without sacrifice. And you have to be more ruthless and smarter than your enemies if you want to even begin to stand a chance against them. The good politicians can and will only begin to win if they accept that “no sacrifice no victory.”

To add a little bit of context to what I wrote up there. For a long time in my life I have lived by the motto “no sacrifice no victory.” It’s my thing so I’m not just talking like a wise just to feel wise. I don’t look like it at all but I’m the type that is prepared for any expected or unexpected events in life. Life is savage and unforgiving and you have to be tough and smart to have a chance at surviving anything it throws at you. But unfortunately today we have become too comfortable to fight. There are just too many enjoyments in this life to miss out on and this has caused most to become cowards.

CodeTemplar:
go and finish your fermented starch and oguo.

Friedrich Hayek was a famous british-austrian economist.

Go school, you no gree.

grandstar:


Friedrich Hayek was a famous british-austrian economist.

Go school, you no gree.

Kofi Anan.

CodeTemplar:
Kofi Anan.

What writings or theories of his dis you find engaging?

grandstar:


What writings or theories of his dis you find engaging?

medicine after death